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MANIFOLD
Will ThePosterior.news publish X articles by EoY?
5
Ṁ150Ṁ93
Dec 31
24.3 articles
expected
8%
0-4
29%
5-14
28%
15-24
17%
25-39
17%
40 or more

Resolution criteria

  • Source of Truth: This market will resolve based on the official public publication archive of the AI newsletter The Posterior, hosted at theposterior.news.

  • Tally Window: The count will encompass all eligible articles published from the newsletter's inception on June 12, through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

  • Platform Redundancy: If the main domain theposterior.news becomes permanently offline or inaccessible, the creator will determine the count using official backup channels, archived snapshots, or the newsletter's hosting platform (e.g., Beehiiv).

  • Resolution Value: As a MULTI_NUMERIC market, resolution will be based on the exact final integer count of eligible articles published within the timeframe.

Market context
AI
Culture
Fun
Manifold Users
SF Bay Rationalists
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So it's called "the butt"?

@GilearFaeth 'posterior' as opposed to 'prior'
but also yes

@JoeandSeth My prior was that it was supposed to be the statistical posterior, but I could not resist.

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