Will GPT-4 be released by end of year (December 21, 2022)?
18%
chance

This question resolves to "YES" if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before January 1st 2023, Pacific Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI.

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DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin
bought Ṁ25 of NO

Based on the two tweets, it won't be this year (looks like December was the early date, everything takes longer than expected, and they already are thinking it will be next year.)

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
bought Ṁ50 of NO
ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Win-Win Situation

citrinitas avatar
Anton
bought Ṁ40 of NO

"Researcher from Anthropic puts in a big limit order on accelerated timelines" is definitely a mood. But I can't find anything that seems like anyone should have insider information.

@SamBowman penny for your thoughts? (In the form of a filled order)

Hedgehog avatar
🦔
is predicting YES at 45%

@citrinitas Not trading on any information at all—just trying to exploit the huge difference between this market and another equivalent one: https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-a-successor-to-gpt3-eg-gpt4-be

But yeah, I guess I should keep an eye on what the markets are actually for...

Hedgehog avatar
🦔
is predicting YES at 45%

(Bought a bunch of cheap 'no' on the other one.)

citrinitas avatar
Anton
is predicting NO at 45%

Ah, nice. A big chunk of my position is that multimodal is the big push and generative transformers don't have as much juice left.

Maybe we get a chinchilla-scaled GPT but I do agree that the other market should probably trade higher than this one

Lorenzo avatar

@SamBowman Imho there's a big difference between "announced" and "released"