Will GPT-4 be released by end of year (December 21, 2022)?

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resolved Jan 24

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This question resolves to "YES" if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before January 1st 2023, Pacific Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI.

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39 Holders

183 Trades

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predicted NO

Time to resolve this one?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

https://twitter.com/sama/status/1607220186146541568

sold Ṁ20 of YES

@FranklinBaldo I miss read this tweet

bought Ṁ25 of NO

Based on the two tweets, it won't be this year (looks like December was the early date, everything takes longer than expected, and they already are thinking it will be next year.)

bought Ṁ50 of NO

https://twitter.com/Killa_ru/status/1565740292342484994
Interesting Tweet

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Win-Win Situation

Random tweet https://mobile.twitter.com/dharmesh/status/1584937053502177280

bought Ṁ40 of NO

"Researcher from Anthropic puts in a big limit order on accelerated timelines" is definitely a mood. But I can't find anything that seems like anyone should have insider information.

@SamBowman penny for your thoughts? (In the form of a filled order)

predicted YES

@citrinitas Not trading on any information at all—just trying to exploit the huge difference between this market and another equivalent one: https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-a-successor-to-gpt3-eg-gpt4-be

But yeah, I guess I should keep an eye on what the markets are actually for...