This question resolves to YES if there are >=50,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by end of August 2022, using reported confirmed cases from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox
“monkeypox”= the disease currently being reported as monkeypox, with attribution as monkeypox continuing even if the name is changed
My Policy = “Betting as usual” Applying the joy_void_joy ontology https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ874 | |
| 2 | Ṁ194 | |
| 3 | Ṁ113 | |
| 4 | Ṁ107 | |
| 5 | Ṁ73 |
Looking at this more closely, I just bought "yes" because I think the owid page just needs to be updated. The global.health spreadsheet puts the total at 45618, and https://www.ilpandacentrostudio.it/uk.html puts the 7-day average of cases/day over 1k. So I think the past few days' extra low numbers probably reflect an updating issue at owid. If owid updates to ~45k for today and cases come in at ~1k/day for the rest of the month, then 50k will be reached. I think it will probably be pretty close, but I think 50k will be reached.
Looking at this more closely, I just bought "yes" because I think the owid page just needs to be updated. The global.health spreadsheet puts the total at 45618, and https://www.ilpandacentrostudio.it/uk.html puts the 7-day average of cases/day over 1k. So I think the past few days' extra low numbers probably reflect an updating issue at owid. If owid updates to ~45k for today and cases come in at ~1k/day for the rest of the month, then 50k will be reached. I think it will probably be pretty close, but I think 50k will be reached.