Will there be >=50,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of August?
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265
100
resolved Aug 31
Resolved
YES

This question resolves to YES if there are >=50,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by end of August 2022, using reported confirmed cases from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox

“monkeypox”= the disease currently being reported as monkeypox, with attribution as monkeypox continuing even if the name is changed

My Policy = “Betting as usual” Applying the joy_void_joy ontology https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO

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predicted YES

Looking at this more closely, I just bought "yes" because I think the owid page just needs to be updated. The global.health spreadsheet puts the total at 45618, and https://www.ilpandacentrostudio.it/uk.html puts the 7-day average of cases/day over 1k. So I think the past few days' extra low numbers probably reflect an updating issue at owid. If owid updates to ~45k for today and cases come in at ~1k/day for the rest of the month, then 50k will be reached. I think it will probably be pretty close, but I think 50k will be reached.

sold Ṁ45 of NO

Looking at this more closely, I just bought "yes" because I think the owid page just needs to be updated. The global.health spreadsheet puts the total at 45618, and https://www.ilpandacentrostudio.it/uk.html puts the 7-day average of cases/day over 1k. So I think the past few days' extra low numbers probably reflect an updating issue at owid. If owid updates to ~45k for today and cases come in at ~1k/day for the rest of the month, then 50k will be reached. I think it will probably be pretty close, but I think 50k will be reached.

predicted YES

I was expecting a monday spike in cases. Weekends seem to have less reported data. Didn't happen. 6 cases after days with more than 1k seems wrong. Anyway, propability is lower now, but maybe >10%?

bought Ṁ200 of NO

currently at 41,717 with data from Aug 22, so there are 9 days left and would need 8,283 more cases or an average of at least 920 daily cases. The current 7 day average is at 598 daily cases.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Close call. 7 Day average is 788, 870 needed for the next 10 days to reach 50.000.

Why stop trading at Aug 25?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Ten days to go and we're only at 41,300. Unless the case rate picks up it won't make it.