Will flow of gas through Nord Stream 1 from Russia to Germany continue at over 25% capacity for trailing 7-day average through Oct 31, 2022?
4
3
Ṁ300
resolved Aug 3
Resolved
NO

Resolves to NO if the pipeline Physical Flow is < 430,000,000 kWh/day for trailing 7-day average at any time from August 1, 2022 to the end of Oct 31, 2022 (Germany -Central Europe Time).

https://www.nord-stream.info

My Policy = “Not betting” Applying the joy_void_joy ontology https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO

Jul 22, 1:55pm: corrected the date range to start 8/1/2022 (vs 7/21)…and threshold at daily avg <430,000,000 kWH/day (vs 43,000,000) to make it a prediction about future flow.

In 2020 and 2021 the 7-day trailing average for every day 8/1-10/31 was over 1,650,000,000 kWh/day.

Aug 4, 5:11pm:

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Added screenshot of Physical Flow by day showing that for 7/26-8/1 the 7day average is ~390,000,000
Because the 7-day trailing average Physical Flow for 8/1 is already <430,000,000
Why was this market solved?
Well this is getting interesting quickly… https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/07/25/russias-gazprom-says-new-turbine-halt-will-further-cut-gas-to-germany-via-nord-stream-1.html
bought Ṁ12 of NO
@JoeBrenton It is, it's sad it doesn't have much liquidity
@MP I thought that by adding +M200 when I created the question that would get more activity, but I’m not sure that is so visible that it makes a difference
predicted NO
@JoeBrenton Yes, MM needs to solve this. There's nothing one can do to bring interest to their markets. On the other side, when I rank the ones with the most volume, only appears stupid markets like "Will Delta Airlines recover my luggage?" and "Will the manifold founders be accepted by some forum?" that are both questions that seem only to be funny as a private joke to the founders
bought Ṁ100 of YES
@MP Yeah it's something we are very aware we need to improve. We did recently add a "subsidy" sort option which hopefully will help a small amount. We are also working on a "trending" filter that will show markets with the most unique traders over the last 3 days. It's a tough one though... if you have any suggestions we would love to hear them!
Sorry I had the mistakes in the original details. Kaarel, let me know if those corrections affect your bet basis…and I’ll try to refund your bet if you want that.
How is the average for that date of the year?

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