Will flow of gas through Nord Stream 1 from Russia to Germany continue at over 25% capacity for trailing 7-day average through Oct 31, 2022?
4
300Ṁ1419resolved Aug 3
Resolved
NO1H
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Resolves to NO if the pipeline Physical Flow is < 430,000,000 kWh/day for trailing 7-day average at any time from August 1, 2022 to the end of Oct 31, 2022 (Germany -Central Europe Time).
My Policy = “Not betting” Applying the joy_void_joy ontology https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO
Jul 22, 1:55pm: corrected the date range to start 8/1/2022 (vs 7/21)…and threshold at daily avg <430,000,000 kWH/day (vs 43,000,000) to make it a prediction about future flow.
In 2020 and 2021 the 7-day trailing average for every day 8/1-10/31 was over 1,650,000,000 kWh/day.
Aug 4, 5:11pm:
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