Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Senator Elizabeth Warren officially seeks reelection to the United States Senate from Massachusetts for the term beginning in January 2031 (the 2030 election cycle).

"Seeking reelection" is defined as meeting at least one of the following conditions:

1. She makes a formal, public announcement declaring her candidacy for reelection in the 2030 cycle.

2. She officially files nomination papers with the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth to qualify for the 2030 Senate ballot (primary or general) and does not withdraw prior to the finalization of the ballot.

The market will resolve to NO if:

1. She publicly announces she will retire or will not seek reelection in 2030.

2. The official Massachusetts state filing deadline for the 2030 Senate election passes without her filing the necessary nomination papers to appear on the ballot.

3. She vacates her office, passes away, or is otherwise permanently disqualified from running prior to declaring her candidacy.

Note on FEC Filings: Routine Statement of Candidacy filings (FEC Form 2) with the Federal Election Commission to maintain active campaign committees and fundraising accounts will not, on their own, trigger a YES resolution.

Background

Elizabeth Warren was first elected to the United States Senate from Massachusetts in 2012. She secured a third term in the November 2024 election, defeating Republican John Deaton with approximately 59.8% of the vote. Her current term runs through January 3, 2031, with the next election for her seat (Class I) scheduled for November 2030.

While Warren has maintained active campaign finance accounts for future cycles, senators frequently file early federal paperwork to keep fundraising operations active. A final determination on whether she will formally run for a fourth term will depend on her state-level ballot access filings and formal announcements closer to the 2030 election cycle.

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