Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Boston receives a cumulative total of 12 inches or more of snowfall by 11:59 PM EST on January 31, 2026. Snowfall will be measured using official National Weather Service Boston/Norton office NOWdata, available at https://www.weather.gov/box/. The measurement includes all snow that falls during the month, regardless of whether it melts between storms.

Background

Boston averages 12.3 inches of snow in January, making a foot of snow a near-average outcome for the month. The past three Januarys have all seen around 8 or 9 inches of snow, with the last above-average snowy January occurring in 2022 when Boston received 3 feet. Precipitation is forecast to be near or below average in January, though a snowy January is still possible even with below-average precipitation, since 10 inches of snowfall typically yields only 1 inch of melted precipitation.

Considerations

Snowfall across New England is highly variable, particularly in the Boston area and the rest of Southern New England, where the region lies on the southern edge of consistent snowfall. Recent forecasts show scattered light snow events rather than major storms, making accumulation dependent on multiple smaller systems rather than one significant event.