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How about this instance:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/innocent-bystander-shot-dead-peacekeepers-no-kings-protest-salt-lake-c-rcna213158

@SusanneinFrance clearly not National Guard

Can you clarify "in the next week"? When does that period end?

@ErwinRossen June 15 is when the market closes

Any of them on overseas active deployments? Yemen?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen are you asking me if there are any NG deployed? The answer is yes. Do NG deployed overseas count for this? Sure. But given their deployments it is very unlikely unless Russia invades Poland or something. It would also have to make the pages of the WSJ.

Can you clarify what you mean by kill anyone? I suspect you are referring to the protests in Los Angeles, but as stated, it could be interpreted more broadly, including an accident during training in Kansas.

@dfish My personal reading was that anywhere counted.

That being said, I don't think the WSJ would cover a random training accident.

@Quroe, given the lack of details, I agree with your interpretation. I realize these are edge cases, but I think its good practice to specify some parameters, e.g., whether off-duty qualifies.

@dfish Oh, that's a good point. Market Creator, care to weigh in?

@Quroe accidental deaths wouldn’t count. Off duty doesn’t count. If there is a dispute whether a killing is accidental or not I will use my judgment.

@JimAusman, thank you for clarifying.

15% looks about right to me at time of comment.