Will Stripe IPO by the end of June 2022?
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Ṁ665resolved Jul 2
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This market will resolve to yes if shares of Stripe are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before June 30th, 2022.
Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks
Jan 13, 10:24pm: #IPO
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I'm confused. Now that this is at 3% with M$ 665 in the market:
If I bet M$ 20 on YES the payout would be M$330(+1554.2%). (Prob 3% -> 11%)
If I bet M$ 200 then the payout would be M$645(+222.6%). (Prob 3% -> 99.4%)
Why would I make relatively less M$ by betting more?
Is it because there are only M$ 665 in the market?
@antani Yeah, markets don't create M$, so it can't pay out more than the sum of all the bets + subsidy. In general, if your bet moves the probability a lot, you're going to get a lower % payout because your average cost-per-share is higher.
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