The NO team achieves dominance by keeping the price at 45% or lower.
The YES team achieves dominance by keeping the price at 55% or higher.
So, if you:
Buy YES, in order to get your Mana back you have to hope for the other team (NO) to win, and
Buy NO, in order to get your Mana back you have to hope for the other team (YES) to win.
Upon market closing (January 3rd, 11pm ET), the team with the longest undisrupted dominance will be determined and market resolves to the OPPOSITE team.
I will initialize with 50 mana limit on each side, in order to make it difficult to break through. Will make sure to have no position 2 days before closing.
Thanks to @Gamble_market for inspiring this market.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ345 | |
| 2 | Ṁ92 | |
| 3 | Ṁ85 | |
| 4 | Ṁ10 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
All right, since this market has caused some confusion, I'll write here the full log registry of dominance (Only those that lasted more than 5 minutes)
1- YES dominance for 1 HOUR, 5 MIN: From January 3, 0:26:50 until 1:32:04, GMT-6
That's when I posted my previous comment. But then, there were other periods of dominance which I didn't report until now:
2- NO dominance for 1 HOUR, 49 MIN: From January 3, 9:08:35 until 10:57:41, GMT-6
3- NO dominance for 4 HOURS, 3 MIN: From January 3, 14:39:31 until 18:42:40, GMT-6
This is when arae posted her last comment, which counted only the periods of dominance that I had reported, but not the ones that had occurred.
4- NO dominnace for 59 MIN, From January 3, 21:01:11 until the market close at 22:00:00, GMT-6
I know that I confused you by not reporting dominance in real time, but based on the facts that:
- The largest undisrupted dominance was for the NO team (4 HOURS, 3 MIN)
- This was visible both on the graph and on the trade logs, even before @a made her comment
- Some users like @EMcNeill actually commented objecting that NO "had dominance between 3 and 6 hours ago"
This market should resolve as YES
@EMcNeill The market resolves NO if the YES team has had dominance for longer and YES if the NO team has had dominance for longer. Since the YES team has had an hour of dominance, and the market closes in less than an hour, we know the market will resolve NO regardless of what happens. Therefore, it's free money to bet on NO.
UPDATE:
- There was another brief period of NO dominance for 3 minutes starting January 3, from 0:23:02 until 0:26:14 (GMT-6),
- This was inmediately followed by a first period of YES dominance from 0:26:50 until 1:32:04 (GMT-6), which lasted over 1 hour and 5 minutes
So far, the YES team is winning, which means that unless something changes in the next 15 hours, the payout would be given to the NO holders.