Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES if, by 11:59 pm ET on December 31, 2039, the U.S. federal government establishes a nationwide greenhouse‑gas cap‑and‑trade system (a.k.a. “cap‑and‑invest”) via either:

  • An enacted federal statute that sets a binding, quantitative cap on covered GHG emissions and creates tradable emission allowances (economy‑wide or at least one major sector), or

  • A Final Rule published in the Federal Register that does the same under existing authority.

• The program must apply to private entities across the United States (not only federal agencies), include an absolute emissions cap and tradable allowances, and be mandatory. “Cap‑and‑invest” qualifies if functionally identical to cap‑and‑trade. (epa.gov)

• Exclusions: carbon taxes/fees without a cap; intensity or credit‑trading programs without an absolute cap; purely voluntary schemes; state or regional programs (e.g., CA, RGGI); programs covering only non‑GHG pollutants (e.g., SO₂/NOₓ under the Acid Rain Program). (epa.gov)

• Verification: the specific Congress.gov Public Law page and/or the Federal Register Final Rule page for the program will be cited at resolution.

  • Congress.gov public laws: https://www.congress.gov/public-laws

  • Federal Register (rules): https://www.federalregister.gov/

• If such a law/rule is enacted/published by the deadline and later stayed or repealed, market still resolves YES. Otherwise NO.

Background

• As of September 24, 2025, the U.S. has no federal carbon price or national ETS; carbon pricing exists only at the sub‑national level (e.g., California; RGGI). (oecd.org)

• Prior federal attempt: the House passed H.R. 2454 (Waxman‑Markey) in 2009 to create a GHG cap‑and‑trade program; it died in the Senate. (congress.gov)

• EPA operates federal cap‑and‑trade for SO₂/NOₓ (Acid Rain Program and related programs), but these are not GHG. (epa.gov)

Considerations

• Agency authority constraints: West Virginia v. EPA (2022) applied the “major questions” doctrine, making a broad, generation‑shifting GHG trading program via Section 111 without clear congressional authorization legally vulnerable—suggesting a statute is the most likely pathway. (law.cornell.edu)

• Sector‑specific qualifies: a federal GHG cap‑and‑trade limited to a sector (e.g., power) still counts if nationwide and meeting the criteria.

• Labeling: Programs branded “cap‑and‑invest” count if they include an absolute cap and tradable allowances. (epa.gov)