Next month's trailing 12-month CPI above 2.9%?
5
100Ṁ73
Oct 31
63%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12 months ending September 2025, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is greater than 2.9%. The CPI data is typically released in the second week of the following month. The relevant report can be found on the BLS website: Consumer Price Index News Release.

This measures regular CPI, not “core”.

  • Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering extending the market close date until the government shutdown ends and CPI data is available again.

  • Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve when CPI data is released, even if a government shutdown continues. The CPI data is expected to be released regardless of shutdown status, though potentially with a slight delay.

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@traders Based on my previous comment, I will resolve this when the CPI comes out, but I'm fairly certain it will be released regardless of whether the shutdown continues or not, just a bit later this week or next month.

@CraigDemel wow, liked my comment within 11 seconds, that has to be a record of some sort!

@JeromeHPowell I was already looking at Manifold when I got the notification.

@CraigDemel had a feeling that you didn't just hop on to like my comment :)

I am inclined to open this until the shutdown ends and cpi data is up again….any objections?

@JeromeHPowell I think that is sensible.

Title: 2.9%
Description: 2.7%

@4fa That's my mistake, just corrected

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