Next month's trailing 12-month CPI above 2.9%?

100Ṁ73

Oct 31

63%

chance

ALL

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12 months ending September 2025, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is greater than 2.9%. The CPI data is typically released in the second week of the following month. The relevant report can be found on the BLS website: Consumer Price Index News Release.

This measures regular CPI, not “core”.

Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering extending the market close date until the government shutdown ends and CPI data is available again.

Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve when CPI data is released, even if a government shutdown continues. The CPI data is expected to be released regardless of shutdown status, though potentially with a slight delay.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

US CPI annual inflation rate above 3.0% in October 2025

79% chance

Will the CPI in the US exceed 10% on a year-over-year basis at any point before 2026?

3% chance

Will the core CPI have increased more than 5% YOY at the end of 2025?

4% chance

Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

Sort by:

@traders Based on my previous comment, I will resolve this when the CPI comes out, but I'm fairly certain it will be released regardless of whether the shutdown continues or not, just a bit later this week or next month.