Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 50% for at least 12 hours?
19
100Ṁ22kresolved Mar 4
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market runs in 2 stages. When you complete a stage, you go to the next stage. When you complete the last stage, the market resolves to YES. If the time runs out, the market resolves NO
1. The probability must stay below 24.5% for a total of 12 hours.
2. The probability must stay at or above 50.5% for a total of 12 hours.
This is almost an exact duplicate of https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-implied-probability-of-thi-478efb9a7eed, which I accidentally resolved early.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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