Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 50% for at least 12 hours?

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resolved Mar 4

Resolved

YES

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This market runs in 2 stages. When you complete a stage, you go to the next stage. When you complete the last stage, the market resolves to YES. If the time runs out, the market resolves NO 1. The probability must stay below 24.5% for a total of 12 hours. 2. The probability must stay at or above 50.5% for a total of 12 hours. This is almost an exact duplicate of https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-implied-probability-of-thi-478efb9a7eed, which I accidentally resolved early.

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Will this question have a probability of 50% or more by the time it closes.

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bought Ṁ50 of YES

Or maybe I'm trying to get you to back off?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Tick tock.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

I can keep doing this for a while.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Are you sure about that?

bought Ṁ415 of NO

Three cheers for everybody's favorite pickle jar!

sold Ṁ508 of YES

Then I would've sold less YES.

sold Ṁ33 of NO

I should have bought more NO

sold Ṁ1,139 of YES

Pleasure to educate you.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

The first stage has completed and we are more than half-way into the second stage

sold Ṁ1,160 of NO

Never mind, it says TOTAL, not CONSECUTIVE. I'm a dummy.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

As I understand the question, it only needs to go below 50 for a single second to reset the 12-hour timer, yes? I'll be back this afternoon.

bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

Bought in with real money to cancel the attempt.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Has the first stage been completed already? No, right?

bought Ṁ1 of NO

I'm bored. Let's start the timer.

Related questions

Will this question have a probability of 50% or more by the time it closes.

Related questions

Will this question have a probability of 50% or more by the time it closes.