Will the International Olympic Committee ban Russian athletes (Even competing under a white flag, or as part of the ROC) from competing in the Paris 2024 Olympic Games?
This market will get resolved when the IOC makes a final decision on the matter.
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ASOIF is still holding the line on the neutrality route:
"The Council members exchanged thoughts on the status of Russian and Belarusian athletes on the road to the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. ASOIF is ready to collaborate with the IOC and National Olympic Committees on clarifying a workable definition of “neutral athletes” as a necessary step to further explore the Russian and Belarusian athletes’ potential participation in the Olympic Games. This is a highly complex matter for the International Federations (IFs) in terms of their specificity and the particular qualification process. Different solutions may be required for different sports.
In light of the various positions covered recently in the media, the Council members raised the concern that, in the past, boycotts have never achieved anything and stressed that sport must bring people together, not divide them. The Council also emphasised the necessity to prevent public authorities’ influence in sport matters."
Estonia and Czechia NOCs for the moment ruled out boycotts, so not looking like there is much momentum on that front.
Hot air from the EU:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2023-0056_EN.html
More hot air:
IOC's current mealy-mouthed position:
Still think IOC will end up drafting some very stringent neutrality rules, the EU et. al will huff and puff in a performative manner (imagine the TWEETS!), then the games will go on w/ Russia.
Without actually knowing, I assume IOC is massively corrupt like FIFA, so kicking a few Putin-bucks at them will get them to stonewall in favor of Russian athlete participation (not to mention the threat of polonium-tipped umbrellas). Barring any qualitatively new atrocities in UKR, the only other thing I can think of that could move the needle would be a credible threat to boycott by a critical mass of countries. YES looks a tad too rich at 59%.
Some background here: