Will the Chicago Bears beat the spread this Sunday
Basic
5
Ṁ357
resolved Dec 3
Resolved
NO

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
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@JeffNathan Can this resolve now?

@traders I'm happy to resolve as mod since the creator seems inactive, if someone will post sources for the game and the spread.

predicted NO

@EvanDaniel Unfortunately there is dispute over which Bears game is relevant to this market.

If it is the game on 10/15 the resolution would be NO.

If it is the game on 10/22 the resolution would be YES.

I bid the market down on 10/15 assuming that was the relevant game. @TrickyDuck bid the market up on 10/19 assuming it was referencing the future game.

@travis @TrickyDuck

I don't see a source posted for game results or spreads. I assume those aren't in question at all? Everyone agrees that the Bears did not beat the spread on the 15th, and did beat the spread on the 22nd, and there are no other plausibly relevant games to consider?

I believe this is talking about the game on the 15th:

  • "This sunday" presumably refers to the immediate upcoming game as of posting time.

  • One week resolve window looks like they just left the default time.

  • I think if @JeffNathan were trying to close trading before the game intentionally, it would have closed the day before (or immediately before) the game, aka on the 21st before the game on the 22nd, not the 19th.

I think the primary argument that it's about the 22nd is that it is weird to leave trading open and the market unresolved for so long after the game in question. I interpret that as pointing to an inexperienced and inactive creator, not an intent to have this be about the later game.

Resolving No. @JeffNathan if this is a mistake please let me know and we can re-resolve.

predicted YES

@EvanDaniel Thanks for taking a thoughtful approach to resolving this as fairly as possible. I tried to find proof that it was one game and not the other but couldn’t, and what you came up with makes sense. I didn’t bet a massive amount on this, so I am ready to move on. Cheers!

@TrickyDuck You're welcome! Sorry about the confusion.

If you notice stuff like this in the future, please feel free to request help and clarification early. Everything would be much simpler if the need for resolution had been noticed immediately!

predicted YES

@Admin. Please resolve to Yes.

I can’t find this question on my list of questions. The only game for the Bears that I had in October was against the Raiders and that was resolved to yes.

predicted NO

@JosephNathan Here is your market for the 10/22 game: /JosephNathan/will-the-chicago-bears-beat-the-spr-24114ad5c913

It looks like Jeff is no longer active.

predicted YES

@Admin Please resolve as YES. Thx!

predicted NO

@TrickyDuck It should resolve NO, I think.

Oct 15 game, Bears were +3 and lost to the Vikings 13-19.

@JeffNathan

predicted YES

@travis Betting didn’t stop until the 20th, so this would have been for the Raiders game. The spread was 2 points, and the Bears won by much more than 2.

24-10 Raiders

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