Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?
20
57
1k
2028
31%
chance

Before 2028-01-01, will a European Data Privacy Agency warn or fine a website operator under the GDPR for collecting personal data for ad fraud prevention?

This does not include a warning/fine for:

  • Collecting data for ad fraud plus some other purpose

  • Using US ad fraud providers (Schrems II)

  • Using cookies (ex: recent Microsoft Ruling) or other local storage

  • Violation of regulations newer than 2022-01-01

Resolves yes if a warning or fine is issued, no otherwise.

Context: https://www.jefftk.com/p/ad-fraud-detection-prediction-market

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bought Ṁ20 of YES

if a fine or warning was issued, but it turns out that it was an mistake, will the market still resolve to yes?

predicts NO

@BjornJurgens mistake as in it's overruled by a higher authority? Or just at some point in the future rulings start going the other way?

predicts YES

@JeffKaufman >mistake as in it's overruled by a higher authority?

this.

also sometimes the authority itself notices that the ruling was hasty and after looking at it again they withdraw it. (happens with municipal fines all the time, but I guess on a higher level these are less common)

i guess the simplest solution would be to resolve to true whenever an official fine has been issued, irregardless was comes next.

predicts NO

@BjornJurgens I think we need to do the simple thing here, unless someone more familiar with the process is able to explain some circumstances in which we'd easily be able to tell that we were only getting what's effectively a preliminary judgement. I don't want to see a ruling one way and then be saying "but they could always decide another way later..."