Graduating high school in 2025. Planning to apply early, resolves YES if accepted, waits if deferred or waitlisted.

Feel free to ask questions in the comments.

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the MOP -> MIT rate last year was past 90%; the market probability should account for this

@JuniKim I've been saying this for some time. 😂

Are you related to any MIT alumni?

What minorities are you a member of?

@TomFinnie I'm Asian.

3 traders bought Ṁ111 NO
bought Ṁ45 YES from 76% to 83%

Which are the most notable ways in which your application is stronger than the average MIT applicant's?

@MaxMorehead I made MOP, but that's probably not enough; I guess I also have a bronze medal on the USAPhO in case that counts for anything? I have all the "normal" stuff (e.g. leader of math club, 1590 sat, rec teachers like me). I'm also doing some math research but so is every other math main nowadays. Maybe I'll win something at quiz bowl nationals this year? This question is kind of vague and hard to answer lol

@JeanJacquesRousseau MOP and 1590 SAT and good grades should be enough for MIT.

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 70% order

@JeanJacquesRousseau That's pretty much what I was looking for, and I think the market was right to adjust up once you shared this.

But keep in mind college essays are basically vague and hard to answer questions about how you're better than other similar applicants XD.

bought Ṁ25 YES


opened a Ṁ800 YES at 20% order

buying yes at 20% (exit order, not a believer)


@hannah what?

What is your main extracurricular(s)?

@PseudonymousBosche24f Math competitions, but I also do some trivia stuff (quiz bowl) and science olympiad and speech

@JeanJacquesRousseau Did you make it to USAMO/did you win a USAMO award?

@MaxMorehead I qualified for the USAMO 3 times and I got a silver medal, and I made MOP this year

@JeanJacquesRousseau Blue mop and great SAT and grades with no red flags should be pretty much a lock, right?

@nathanwei Lots of Asians with those stats get rejected. The market's current probability is reasonable imo.

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@ShadowyZephyr This is blatantly false.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@JuniKim no, a lot of people do USAMO and have 1600 SAT and still get rejected. If you're at MIT, you are only talking to the people who got in. that being said with the other stuff they did the probability is probably above 50%

@ShadowyZephyr Doing blue MOP is not at all the same as doing USAMO. Not a lot of people do blue MOP. Almost no one does that and gets rejected.

@nathanwei oh yeah nvm, missed that, i was talking about USAMO + high SAT. but it seems like most of those students do get into MIT, I was just thinking of other Ivies that weight those things less + being Asian lowers chances of admissions.