Resolution criteria

The election will be held on February 12, 2026. This market resolves YES if Tarique Rahman loses in his nominated constituency (Dhaka-17 or Bogura-6). This market resolves NO if he wins in either constituency. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Bangladesh Election Commission at https://www.ec.org.bd/.

Background

Tarique Rahman is the chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) since January 2026. Rahman is widely viewed as the prime ministerial frontrunner in February's general election. He returned to Dhaka on December 25, 2025, after 17 years in exile in London. All cases against him were dropped over the last year and a half, and convictions were stayed, paving the way for his return.

An opinion survey conducted in December showed support for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) at around 70 percent, with its nearest challenger, the Jamaat Islami (JI) at 19 percent. Another survey showed that more than 47 percent of people see the possibility of Tarique Rahman becoming the prime minister.

Considerations

Experts think that Rahman's return may create challenges for the BNP due to his controversial legacy involving the Hawa Bhaban and corruption. His success will turn on whether he can appeal to disillusioned younger voters, sharpen messaging, unite a party riven by disputes over candidate selection, and convince a nation emerging from a tumultuous period that he can deliver the brighter future it seeks.

This description was generated by AI.