Will Claude 3.5 Opus be able to draw me in tic-tac-toe while playing as O at least 1/3 of the time? | Manifold

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be able to draw me in tic-tac-toe while playing as O at least 1/3 of the time?

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Once it comes out, I will play Claude 3.5 Opus in 9 tic-tac-toe games, choosing a different starting square each time and then proceeding to play as optimally as possible.

Claude 3.5 Opus will be prompted as follows: "Let's play tic-tac-toe. Think step-by-step about each move. I will go first and put my x in [insert square]".

For reference, gpt-4o has a zero percent draw rate.

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Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?

Will GPT-5 be able to draw me in tic-tac-toe while playing as O at least 30% of the time?

What will Claude 3.5 Opus's reported 0-shot performance on GPQA Diamond be upon release?

Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?

Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?

What will be the *first* ELO Rating of Claude 3.5 Opus in the LMSYS Arena?

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Will GPT-5 be at least a tiny bit strategic at the "Numbers Game"?

would claude 4 beat gpt5 in a game of go?

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Have you tried prompting the AI that it should try to win?

bought Ṁ103 NO

Would be lovely if you could share your transcripts once you resolve this! I'm curious how it will behave.

@JaundicedBaboon Will you yourself be betting in this market?

I was under the impression that having the creator bet in their own market was seen as untrustworthy, but if it wasn't I would bet no

What's your board representation or coordinate system, and is that also in the prompt?

I just say "top/middle/button row left/middle/right column". Though from my experience how you say it doesn't matter and the models can maintain the game state just fine

People are also trading

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?

-11% 1d5% chance

Will GPT-5 be able to draw me in tic-tac-toe while playing as O at least 30% of the time?

What will Claude 3.5 Opus's reported 0-shot performance on GPQA Diamond be upon release?

Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?

Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?

What will be the *first* ELO Rating of Claude 3.5 Opus in the LMSYS Arena?

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Will GPT-5 be at least a tiny bit strategic at the "Numbers Game"?

would claude 4 beat gpt5 in a game of go?

Related questions

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?

Will GPT-5 be able to draw me in tic-tac-toe while playing as O at least 30% of the time?

What will Claude 3.5 Opus's reported 0-shot performance on GPQA Diamond be upon release?

Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?

Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?

What will be the *first* ELO Rating of Claude 3.5 Opus in the LMSYS Arena?

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Will GPT-5 be at least a tiny bit strategic at the "Numbers Game"?

would claude 4 beat gpt5 in a game of go?

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