If chosen, how successful will the research project "Salient features of self-models" be?

Project summary: Testing whether LLMs have genuine self-models or just recognize stylistic patterns by examining if self-recognition training generalizes across different types of content.

Detailed project overview.

Clarifications:

• Unless otherwise stated, timeframes are given from when the research begins, i.e. the start of the MARS program, 1st December 2025

• Updates to posts and papers will be considered the same entity as the original for purposes of outcome resolution (i.e. If a paper is produced and uploaded to arXiv within 9 months, but it is edited after this before being accepted at a conference, (4) still resolves YES)

• Some outcomes are conditional on others as follows: outcome (2) will resolve N/A if (1) resolves NO, outcomes (4)-(6) will resolve N/A if (3) resolves NO

• All outcomes are conditioned on the project being selected and will resolve N/A if it is not (see main post below)

• Provisionally, market will close and decisions will be made on Monday the 12th of October

For more details on AI Safety Research Futarchy, see here.

• Update 2025-10-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This project was not chosen. All outcomes will resolve N/A as stated in the original criteria: "All outcomes are conditioned on the project being selected and will resolve N/A if it is not."