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MANIFOLD
Will John Hopkins' nine-week trial of lithium for Alzheimer's take more than four years?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ10
2030
55%
chance
5

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07459959?cond=Alzheimer%27s%20Disease&intr=lithium&viewType=Table&rank=1#study-plan

40 patients will be randomized in a double-blind manner to receive lithium orotate or placebo for 9 weeks.

Study Start (Estimated)

2026-06-01

Primary Completion (Estimated)

2029-06-01

Study Completion (Estimated)

2029-08-31

Market will conclude four years from now, or when we see the study in press (not just pre-print).

Market context
Medicine
Health
Prison Markets
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I don't know much about how studies like this work, what would make the study take more or less than 4 years? availability of patients, time for researchers to analyze the data and write the paper, something else?

@eeeeee that's definitely it. Logistics hitches in actually doing the treatment to patients and then challenges analyzing and publishing .

@JasonMurphy but really you would think they can do a few more patients in parallel and get a nine week trial of 40 patients done a bit quicker!!!

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