January is Australians' favourite month to visit Japan, and one of America's least favourite month for travel. In most months Australian visitor numbers are 20-40% of US visits, but in January that spikes to 70-80%.

However a surging AUD and a falling JPY makes this most recent year potentially different. As does the political situation in America. Australians who might have holidayed in America are looking elsewhere.

This question will be resolved by looking at the official Japan-bound statistics, due out in mid-March (in a provisional format) and which will be available here:

https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/

Japan-bound Statistics - Tourism Statistics

This page provides Historical Statistics about Visitors to Japan from Overseas. The Japan-bound Statistics data can be downloaded.

If the provisional Australian numbers are within 10% of the American numbers on either side, this resolves yes. Otherwise no.

e.g. if America sends 200,000 tourists and Australia send 181,000, the question resolves in the affirmative. if 200,000 Americans arrive and 221,000 Australians the answer will be no.