Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Question

Resolves based on closing market cap on the first trading day of whichever company IPOs second

Resolves N/A if either company has not begun public trading by December 31, 2030

Also resolves N/A if either company is acquired before both IPO

(Identical market to: source market)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 62% chance (5 traders, as of Oct 23, 2026).

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