Jack Clark predicts YES: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-439-ai-kernels-decentralized.

Resolves to YES if any LLM released prior to 1 Oct 2026 exceeds the human baseline of 61.77% on https://posttrainbench.com/. Reasonable time (to at most 1 Nov) will be given after the deadline in case a model is released close to the deadline that might do it. Result does not have to appear on posttrainbench.com per se but needs to be credible, and not contradicted by the website.

Resolves to NO if this does not occur.

(Identical market to: source market)