Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?

Question

Resolves to YES if at least one model scores at or above the human baseline, as evaluated by the creators of the benchmark, in 2026.

Resolves to NO if this does not happen.

(Identical market to: source market)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 38% chance (3 traders, as of Aug 18, 2026).

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