Will the Charity Commission's statutory inquiry into Effective Ventures UK (EVF) result in a public report finding significant misconduct and/or mismanagement by 12/2025?
30
273
1K
2025
12%
chance

Generally, the report would need to include an intensifier like substantial, significant, or serious -- unless the substantiality is clear and obvious from the report or from the actions taken (e.g., issuance of orders disqualifying most of the trustees). Absence of a public report will cause this to resolve to NO.

For example, this language from a recent report on another charity would qualify, although I view it as a fairly close call:

The Commission has concluded that there was misconduct and/or mismanagement in the charity’s administration by the trustees. This includes a serious disregard for, and/or a lack of understanding of, the importance of proper financial controls and accountability in respect of the charity’s funds.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

Effective Ventures, so much to hide,
Charity Commission digs deep inside,
Will they uncover mismanagement grave?
Or will EVF their reputation save?

Question for users: When I created this market and the "significant regulatory action" market, I viewed them as partially overlapping attempts to operationalize the badness (or lack thereof) of the outcome in a way that was objective as possible. I intended for them to point to a roughly equal level of badness as the threshold.

Right now, the other market is at a higher percentage than this one. I'm curious about what encouraged bidders to bid on one market vs the other, and (currently) with a meaningful difference in expectancy. Is one market a better operationalization of badness, more objective, etc?

Thanks for the feedback!

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@Jason Seems like @NathanpmYoung might have thoughts here?

predicts NO

@berealistic Nudge me if I haven't replied by tomorrow.

predicts YES
predicts NO

@berealistic I think this market was easier for me to understand, so I was more confident on the number. The other market seems vaguer so I don't even consider it until I'd read this message properly.

predicts YES

I really feel like this ought to have more liquidity

I don't trade in my own markets where there is any subjectivity involved, but the current 22 percent chance seems significantly too low to me.