It's us at LanternBioworks.com ! You may have seen our ACX coverage, or our other markets.
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/defying-cavity-lantern-bioworks-faq/comments
https://manifold.markets/jcb/if-lantern-bioworks-successfully-re
We're aiming to launch the product concurrent with the end of SynBioBeta. We currently have 2500 people signed up on the product waitlist, though who knows how many of those will convert. The price is $250 (dropped from the Vitalia-alpha-version price of $20k)
@JamesBakerc884 This sounds fantastic to me, but personally I'm going to wait 12+ months to wait for some reviews before I try it myself. If everyone is thinking the same...
I think that's the hazard of going the supplement route, instead of full FDA approval.
@JamesBakerc884It doesn’t seem that way to me from the comments. Mods can’t resolve N/A. Automatically resolving NO would be unfair to the 23 YES holders, and the 3 NO holders also bought shares After “deprecated” was added.
@jnx I feel bad for creating the 10+ option; I see that a lot of people are gonna lose money off that. I'd be willing to pay people back for the money they've lost, but I'm not really willing to pay off the top two (M500 and M1300). I made about 160 off traders and maybe another 70-80 off of betting on the question itself, so I'm willing to pay about that much... i dunno. 1300 & 500 is just an awful lot :(
@Qoiuoiuoiu But “a lot of people” don’t need to lose, why not the one whale that made a mistake and would be seemingly bailed out at the expense of many others? Resolving the outcomes as normal seems the most fair especially since they continued betting NO on the assumption the market would close in their favor. I also think he might win his bet anyway as this is a speculative first product. Why should that one user be favored by default? @JamieWahls
@jnx what whale do you mean? If you mean @MichaelWheatley, he said that he was betting it down to make it obvious that it was a bad answer
@Qoiuoiuoiu As I stated the reasonable option in my view is to leave the + answers as valid. The market can still continue as normal, Mr. Wheatley’s bet are contributing liquidity to this market in support and he still has a chance of winning
If the literature/marketing materials are anywhere close to accurate, they'll easily sell >1000 of these.
@JamieWahls Doesn't matter exactly, as long as it's more like 5-ish rather than 20. Let's try splitting reality at the joints:
total flop
flop
modest success (roughly in line with projections from waitlist)
sucess
wild success
holy shit we went viral, Oprah did it and now we're buying a factory.
You know the numbers assigned to each category better than me. The issue with too many buckets is that each one stops having this kind of intrinsic meaning, on top of the insane fiddlyness of betting M5 on a bunch of different options trying to express your true beliefs.
While there are going to be more than 0 people doing a high-effort analysis for this kind of question, most of us operate on base rates and gut feelings.
@VitorBosshard hahaI do agree and appreciate you writing this up; and propose (if @JamieWahls does recreate this) to use exactly those names in the buckets eg "Total flop: 0-2k", or "10M+ (holy shit we went viral, Oprah did it and now we're buying a factory)"
I do think the factory bit does point at something useful, which is that good categories might lead to different outcomes. E.g. maybe the difference between "Modest Success" and "Success" is the difference between "Continue executing as planned" and "hire 2 additional FTE to work on this", and you figure out where to draw the line based on what # of sales would give you the confidence to do this.
@JamieWahls you might also change the default sort order to 'old'. Makes it a nice gaussian histogram (except for the 2001-2500 bucket which must have been added later).
But I agree, fewer buckets would make betting easier. Or a numeric market. Or multi resolution with options like ”1000 or more".