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Well this 'controversial' resolution ended up being moot. Prigozhin is at Russia's summit in St. Petersburg with African political leaders.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/07/27/wagner-leader-yevgeny-prigozhin-st-petersburg-russia-africa-summit-robertson-cnntm-ldn-vpx.cnn

Watch: New photo shows Wagner leader Prigozhin in Russia | CNN

Wagner founder and financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has been spotted in St. Petersburg meeting with an African dignitary on the sidelines of the Russia Africa summit, according to accounts associated with the mercenary group. CNN’s Nic Robertson reports.

You say that it's verifiable evidence that he's alive and free. After reading the article, I really didn't get the sense that this was verifiable. In the article it says:

The video is grainy and filmed in low light so CNN cannot definitively say the speaker is Prigozhin or when it was filmed.

When I read that sentence, it seems like they can't confirm or are unable to verify that the speaker is Prigozhin or when it had been filmed.

If I had submitted the video, and I said to you that "I can't verify the person speaking nor the date it was filmed." Would you accept this as evidence to resolve the question?

The top half of the article is just a description of the video. The second part of the article, is what Lukashenko had told reporters on what happened. And from your comments on Lukashenko telling of what happened, it would be hearsay.

I don't see the article/video as answering the question: Will mainstream news report that Prigozhin is alive and free by end of July?

@higherLEVELING CNN has reported evidence that Prigozhin is alive and free. It’s that simple. There’s no other way this market could resolve.

The intent of this market isn’t about the state of Prigozhin, but about what is reported by mainstream news about him.

Bruh cmon.. that's a little much to add in a rule so that this can close early. you added the last thing about hearsay 43 minutes ago. and closed this 43 minutes ago.
here's what it said originally...
________________________________________________
Things that are insufficient to resolve yes:

• Speculation about motives of Prigozhin

• Reports of whereabouts of Prigozhin that include no evidence (anonymous sources are not considered evidence in this case)

Now added: • Hearsay. Sources that claim Prigozhin is free must provide some verifiable evidence to the claim.

If that hearsay wasn't added, you wouldn't be able to close as yes. It wouldn't meet the criteria to close. Last screenshot is showing that they closed after the "hearsay" line was added.

@higherLEVELING that is bizarre. There has to be a bug here. I edited the description 10 days ago. I even commented when I did so: https://manifold.markets/JamesRomeril/will-mainstream-news-report-that-pr#L9KpVlpVzeWY4n5bX7Uz

Will mainstream news report that Prigozhin is alive and free by end of July?

Resolved YES. Any news coming from any one of: • The New York Times • The Wall Street Journal • The Washington Post • ABC • CNN • Fox That reports evidence that Prigozhin is not captured/imprisoned/dead will resolve yes. Things that are insufficient to resolve yes: • Speculation about motiv…

Secondly, the hearsay line was added to clarify some questions from @PS. It has nothing to do with how this market was resolved

The evidence reported by CNN is sufficient to resolve this market even without that line.

@JamesRomeril For me, edit history shows the "hearsay" phrase added around resolution time as well. This seems quite important, generally speaking, and I'd love to see this analyzed by Manifold.

For the record: I lost a small amount of mana and I wished this had resolved earlier, right after CNN showed that video. Furthermore, from the title and some comments, I got the (wrong) impression that "alive" and "free" or similar expressions might be necessary in the report for this to resolve.

That being said: It's a difficult question to operationalize, and on re-reading the description I'm confident the resolution is correct.

Meta: I prefer questions resolving to the letter of question+description as much as possible. Unpopular opinion: Resolutions against the letter of the question should be overruled by N/A-ing, unless there is an explicitely stated "resolves to my intent"-clause.

@Primer All I can think is that the description edit was in some kind of draft mode for 10+ days, and only when I closed the market did it get submitted? I would love someone from Manifold to explain what happened here too. I promise on my end it looked all good, only now does the history seem wrong.

The hearsay question was regarding Lukashenko claiming he was alive. There was no substance to that quote, and there was nothing given by Lukashenko that could be verified (e.g., time or place, or even how he would be in a position to know). Which is why I added that line 10 days ago. I even wrote a comment explaining that edit. But again, that has nothing to do with the resolution of this market. Without that line, it would’ve resolved the same way. 100%

I also lost mana on this question.

As noted in the comments, CNN has reported verifiable evidence that Prigozhin is alive and free.

This is not to say that the evidence is not faked. But it is sufficient to resolve YES.

If you want to hedge against deepfakes: https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-a-deepfake-cause-any-manifold?r=Tm9pdA

Will a deepfake cause any Manifold question to be mis-resolved in 2023?

27% chance. In light of concerns raised about the authenticity of the Prighozin Telegram video, I suspect that the standard of evidence required to resolve a Manifold question is in some cases low enough that a deepfake video could push a market to resolve early and resolve incorrectly. Will that ha…

@Noit I will note here that the resolution criteria I have provided makes no claim about whether the evidence provided is faked or not, merely that it’s sufficient evidence for mainstream media to report it is a given. There is no possibility that this market was mis-resolved.

@JamesRomeril While I think YES resolution probably makes sense, I wouldn't go far as to say it's 100% the right resolution. The CNN article https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/19/europe/prigozhin-wagner-belarus-appears-intl/index.html did not "report that Prigozhin is alive and free" - it was extremely careful not to report that:

• A video emerged on Wednesday that appears to show Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin

• a man resembling and sounding like Prigozhin says in the video

• The video is grainy and filmed in low light so CNN cannot definitively say the speaker is Prigozhin or when it was filmed.

I recognize your argument that this counts as "reporting evidence", but I think others may disagree.

Wagner’s Prigozhin apparently seen in public for first time since failed mutiny | CNN

A video emerged on Wednesday that appears to show Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin greeting his fighters in Belarus, in what would be his first public appearance since he led an armed rebellion in Russia last month.

@jack You may have found wiggle room in the market title, but the description is water tight:

Any news … That reports evidence that Prigozhin is not captured/imprisoned/dead will resolve yes.

CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/19/europe/prigozhin-wagner-belarus-appears-intl/index.html

Wagner’s Prigozhin apparently seen in public for first time since failed mutiny | CNN

A video emerged on Wednesday that appears to show Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin greeting his fighters in Belarus, in what would be his first public appearance since he led an armed rebellion in Russia last month.

How will you be resolving if there is nothing beyond the current “video evidence” which many news reports are treating as “sketchy as heck” e.g. below?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/19/video-appears-to-show-wagner-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-addressing-fighters-in-belarus

Video appears to show Wagner chief for first time since aborted mutiny

Footage released on Telegram is said to show Yevgeny Prigozhin addressing fighters in Belarus

Wagner mercenary group set to move to Belarus after aborted coup (nypost.com)

what if it's unknown where he's at

@higherLEVELING Well if they don’t report at all then the answer should technically resolve to no. The negation (will the mainstream media report Prigozhin is dead) would also resolve no if there was no reporting at all.

@Traveel Not asking about if they dont report at all. Im asking what if its reported that his whereabouts are unknown, like the screenshot shown and article linked

@higherLEVELING I agree with @Traveel - the question reads "Will mainstream news report that Prigozhin is alive and free?" If they don't report that, it seems it should resolve No, whatever else they resolve...

What's the exact difference with https://manifold.markets/jack/will-prigozhin-leader-of-wagner-gro-f4fb1726a5f8? Just the more precise resolution criteria, or something else?

Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) stay alive and free through end of July?

80% chance. Resolves NO if Prigozhin is jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise resolves YES. Background: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256 Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging ‘armed mutiny’”

@PS

@higherLEVELING Thanks for the clarification.

@PS Just to make sure: Any article from the media mentioned in the description claiming Prigozhin is alive and free at any point between now and the end of the months suffices for "yes" (if they are not based on anonymous sources only)?

@PS The reason I'm asking: reports like this one seem to meet the criteria. It's from CNN, quotes a specific source (Lukashenko) claiming Prigozhin is alive and at large...

@PS those are some good points. lets see what he says he pops back in

@PS The article you linked makes no such claims? Can you pull the relevant quote? Did you send the wrong link?

@JamesRomeril I don't know exactly which article, but would this be enough:

But Reuters reported that Lukashenko said on Thursday: "As for Prigozhin, he's in St Petersburg. He is not on the territory of Belarus."

Doesn't necessarily say he's alive or free, but that he's there. Lukashenko claims this
Mercenary chief Prigozhin back in Russia, Belarus's Lukashenko says | Reuters

Wagner Group's Prigozhin Is Back in Russia, Lukashenko Says (newsweek.com)

Wagner boss Prigozhin has returned to Russia, Lukashenko says | Yevgeny Prigozhin | The Guardian

@JamesRomeril Sorry, it was indeed the wrong link. I meant https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/06/europe/prigozhin-lukashenko-analysis-intl/index.html

Prigozhin has been cast out into the cold | CNN

If we learned one thing from Thursday’s press conference by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, it’s that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has not been seen in public since June 24, appears to be in a decidedly perilous limbo.

"“He is in St Petersburg. Or maybe this morning he would travel to Moscow or elsewhere,” Lukashenko said in response to a question from CNN."

@PS I can’t consider that statement as evidence, it’s clearly speculation.

@JamesRomeril Speculation as to where exactly he is, but seems a clear statement by Lukashenko that Prigozhin is alive and free.

I agree that Lukashenko isn't always a reliable source, but it seems to fit the description, which isn't about location.

@PS He could travel as a prisoner or corpse. I don't think this should be enough to resolve.

@AlexbGoode It's clearly not what Lukashenko means. And I agree it shouldn't be enough to resolve, but I do think it should be a reason to clarify the description/criteria for resolution.

@JamesRomeril Here's a more detailed quote, this one from the NYT: "Mr. Prigozhin is at liberty for now, Mr. Lukashenko said, though he conceded that he “did not know what would happen later,” and he brushed off the idea that Mr. Putin would simply have Mr. Prigozhin, until recently a vital ally, killed."

@PS I can’t find anything more than hearsay from Lukashenko. I will update the description accordingly, thanks for raising this.