In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023?
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
Will I observe significant Negative Polarization around AI generated art in 2023?
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?
In a year, will I think that risk of AI apocalypse is between 1 and 10%?
Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk has been developed by October 15, 2023?
Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before 2024?
Will a NZ parliamentary party release an artificial intelligence policy prior to the 2023 election?
Will I use an x.ai product during 2023?
Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?
I get down
Will Andrew Ng start to take AI extinction risk seriously before 2024?
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?