There are unverified reports that Elon Musk is supposed to have posted under the pseudonym "The Antichrist" in 4chan's /pol/ board, using tripcode SATANZ0Gpo.
See this article: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2540273/is-elon-musk-secretly-posting-on-4chan-as-the-antichrist
The referenced reddit post: https://archive.is/2025.04.15-161009/https://old.reddit.com/r/LeaksAndRumors/comments/1jzqr8c/elon_musks_alleged_unverified_4chan_account/#selection-1531.9-1531.29
and the archived 4chan posts: https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/search/tripcode/SATANZ0Gpo/order/asc
If no strong evidence (as judged by me) in favor of Elon Musk having been in control of the tripcode while any of the posts were made, or having posted some of the messages under that tripcode, is uncovered by 01/01/2027, this market will resolve NO. Otherwise, this market will resolve YES.
I will not bet in this market.
1,000People are also trading
https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-confirmed-4chan-user-satanz0gpo Polymarket has this at 2%, but with a much shorter timeline (April 30th).
@JimAusman it's just a unique identifier that let's you know that posts with it come from the same user
Here is a summary of my position:
My prior for a 4Chan poster suspected of being Musk actually being Musk (and not a troll) is approximately -3Sh odds ratio (~11%).
The Antichrist is blatantly racist, anti-Semitic, and right-wing, before it was very obvious that Elon was, at a minimum, very right-wing. A troll on /pol/ would quite plausibly do this, but I will be very charitable to the pro-Musk theory and award it a full +1.5Sh
Otherwise, I have found no cases where The Antichrist has made accurate, low-prior-probability redictions about Musk's actions. This is reasonable under both hypotheses (given the posts from The Antichrist, maintaining deniability is a good idea), but I give -0.5Sh to the Musk theory, as if it was Musk it would at least be possible - but unlikely - whereas a troll almost surely could not do this (without some real connection to Musk).
The Antichrist repeatedly hints at being Musk. It is unclear why Musk would want to do this and draw attention to himself, but his decision-making is not excellent. Perhaps, just for the thrill, he would do this. Meanwhile, a troll would be quite motivated to do this, for attention. Perhaps three times more likely than Musk would? Odds ratio of ~3, -1.5Sh
In total: -3.5Sh, 8% probability.
And even if this truly was Musk, this will resolve NO absent strong evidence before 2027. I am barely 25% confident that, conditioned on this account being Musk, such strong evidence will be found at all.
I expect to do very well on this trade, and wish only that I had more liquid mana.
@4fa I appreciate the offer, but I do not have enough of an established track record to trust myself to use margin yet. However—again, thank you!
@Twig Sure! Feel free to send me a message whenever you want to revisit the idea, maybe in a couple of months.
here is an example I found someone post of the kind of thing people are trying to use to connect them (does not, by itself, qualify as strong evidence for this market):
@JakobBrunker Note that access to tweets for logged-out users was blocked before 2:02AM Pacific time on Jun 30, well before the post in this screenshot: https://x.com/theo/status/1674704833411182592
What is more, in the thread from which the screenshot was taken, users mention that Twitter has begun denying access to users who are not logged in well before "The Antichrist"'s post. Indeed, this is what the thread was about! https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/432771634/#432771634