Romanian police did an unannounced armed raid on Tate's home today,
allegedly connected to kidnapping of two underage girls.
Will criminal charges follow?
Clarificarion: I will resolve to YES if criminal charges are filed in any court, not strictly Romania,
as long as the charges are directly based on the events of the raid itself, &/or the Romanian investigation that the raid is part of.
Please feel free to ask me about hypothetical edge cases.
https://www.libertatea.ro/stiri/surse-perchezitii-diicot-tristan-tate-andrew-tate-sechestrare-fete-tristan-tate-bianca-dragusanu-4394856/amp
Dec 31, 7:06pm: Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before 5/1/2023? → Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before May 1, 2023?
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Thanks to @Gabrielle for pointing me at this.
Both the NYT and Washington post now say he has been "charged"
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/30/world/europe/andrew-tate-romania-arrest.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/30/andrew-tate-detained-romania-brothers-crime/
I'm not sure if this is the same type of "charged" you were looking for, they could just be loosely talking about "arrested on charges of" 🤷♂️. Either way I thought it should bump up the market
@WilliamHoward The guardian says he is in a 30 day "pre trial detention", which also sounds like he's been charged, but it could be a mix up with a 30 day detention in which they have to charge him or let him go
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/30/andrew-tate-detained-in-romania-on-organised-and-charges
@WilliamHoward there is also this related market, which should be at a lower probability than this one (seeing as you need to be charged to be found guilty), if anyone wants to arb it properly be my guest (I did a bit but now I've run out of cash)
@WilliamHoward My intention was the formal legal sense of charges filed; not just arrested on suspicion of etc.
I'll look into whether in the Romanian justice system that's already occured, or is the next expected step.
( & Note to self: I need to add some language making clear that I'd also resolve YES if there's criminal charges in another country arising directly from the raid )
@JakeWasserman fwiw I now think he hasn't been charged and those articles were just playing it a bit fast and loose with their language. the chance still seems high but not >80%
Is this May first or January fifth? This date format is ambiguous and would change my probability.
(I suggest using YYYY.MM.DD to avoid this problem)
@ShakedKoplewitz I intended it as May 1, 2023,
& I mistakenly thought the market closing date of April 30 would show up prominent enough to avoid ambiguity. Good advice, thank you!