Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before May 1, 2023?
resolved May 8

Romanian police did an unannounced armed raid on Tate's home today,

allegedly connected to kidnapping of two underage girls.

Will criminal charges follow?

Clarificarion: I will resolve to YES if criminal charges are filed in any court, not strictly Romania,

as long as the charges are directly based on the events of the raid itself, &/or the Romanian investigation that the raid is part of.

Please feel free to ask me about hypothetical edge cases.



Dec 31, 7:06pm: Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before 5/1/2023? → Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before May 1, 2023?

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dreev avatar
Daniel Reeves

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Thanks to @Gabrielle for pointing me at this.

johnleoks avatar
johnleokspredicted NO

This can resolve No.

Simon1551 avatar

I thought we only got to know if someone got criminal charges after a court hearing. Isn't it the case?

WilliamHoward avatar
Will Howardbought Ṁ100 of YES

Both the NYT and Washington post now say he has been "charged"



I'm not sure if this is the same type of "charged" you were looking for, they could just be loosely talking about "arrested on charges of" 🤷‍♂️. Either way I thought it should bump up the market

WilliamHoward avatar
Will Howardpredicted YES

@WilliamHoward The guardian says he is in a 30 day "pre trial detention", which also sounds like he's been charged, but it could be a mix up with a 30 day detention in which they have to charge him or let him go


WilliamHoward avatar
Will Howardpredicted YES

@WilliamHoward there is also this related market, which should be at a lower probability than this one (seeing as you need to be charged to be found guilty), if anyone wants to arb it properly be my guest (I did a bit but now I've run out of cash)

JakeWasserman avatar
Jake Wassermanpredicted YES

@WilliamHoward My intention was the formal legal sense of charges filed; not just arrested on suspicion of etc.

I'll look into whether in the Romanian justice system that's already occured, or is the next expected step.

( & Note to self: I need to add some language making clear that I'd also resolve YES if there's criminal charges in another country arising directly from the raid )

WilliamHoward avatar
Will Howardsold Ṁ376 of YES

@JakeWasserman fwiw I now think he hasn't been charged and those articles were just playing it a bit fast and loose with their language. the chance still seems high but not >80%

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz

Is this May first or January fifth? This date format is ambiguous and would change my probability.

(I suggest using YYYY.MM.DD to avoid this problem)

JakeWasserman avatar
Jake Wassermanpredicted YES

@ShakedKoplewitz I intended it as May 1, 2023,

& I mistakenly thought the market closing date of April 30 would show up prominent enough to avoid ambiguity. Good advice, thank you!

GeorgeVii avatar
BlueSecret avatar
Blue Secretbought Ṁ50 of NO

he's supposedly laying low until feb now so I doubt that criminal charges will be filed, maybe smth civil but idk

WilliamHoward avatar
Will Howardbought Ṁ10 of YES

this date format is deeply offensive in my culture

JakeWasserman avatar
Jake Wassermanpredicted YES

@WilliamHoward 😖🤔...

The format in general, or this specific date in that format?

JakeWasserman avatar
Jake Wassermanpredicted YES

@pakoito Confirmed arrest sways you towards NO on charges before May?