Will John Carmacks target VR headset be released by any manufacturer by 2026?
Will John Carmacks target VR headset be released by any manufacturer by 2026?
6
150Ṁ176
2026
35%
chance

John Carmack had a target for a $250, 250 gram VR headset.

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2022/12/john-carmack-leaves-meta-after-a-decade-fighting-to-make-vr-a-reality/

Will any manufacturer release such a headset by 2026?

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
2y

Would Google Cardboard count? What about a 3DoF headset like an Oculus Go (but lighter)?

2y

@EMcNeill Good question! I believe he was talking about an all in one headset, so Google cardboard would not count. I don't think he specified DoF so an Oculus Go like headset would count. (Although that might not be what he intended)

predictedNO 2y

@JakeToth That reminds me: what about headsets that are run from a separate computer, like most PC VR headsets (but potentially wireless)? In context, that’s not what Carmack was talking about, but it would be considered a VR headset by most any definition.

And what about “AR glasses” that don’t block out the real world? What if it can do VR, but is primarily marketed as an AR or MR device?

What about media viewers (like the old Vuzix headsets they used to advertise in Skymall magazines) that can track head motion but which aren’t marketed as VR headsets and can’t play games?

2y

@EMcNeill Now that you mention it the boundaries of what counts here does get quite fuzzy!

I would only consider standalone headsets, so not headsets that require a PC. I guess I would consider AR glasses that do VR? Especially because pass through makes VR headsets AR capable! I would not consider media viewers to count.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules