How much trading volume will the biggest Election Market on Kalshi have by November 4th, 2024?

Plus

Ṁ12k

resolved Nov 3

100%98%Other

0.4%

Less than $5 million

0.4%

$5,000,000-$9,999,999

0.3%

$10,000,000-$19,999,999

0.5%

$20,000,000-$39,999,999

0.4%

$40,000,000-$79,999,999

0.5%

$80,000,000-$159,999,999

Kalshi recently won a case against the CTFC, overturning the CTFC's block on Kalshi election markets (CFTC Order Blocking Kalshi Election Bets Overturned by Judge (1) (bloomberglaw.com )). On their landing page, Kalshi now proudly announces "Election Markets are coming to Kalshi!"

How much traction will these markets get?

The highest volume market currently on Kalshi politics is a little under $1.5 million. Their overall volume leader is a Federal Reserve market with around $4.5 million. Polymarket, however, has seen about $845 million and counting wagered on their presidential election winner 2024 market.

This market will resolve at a randomly chosen time between 8am and noon Eastern on Monday, November 4th, so that market participants will not have their mana tied up over election day. I will not wager in the market. I will use only data from Kalshi itself. "Election Markets" are defined as markets that show up when a user clicks on the "Election Markets" tab, if one exists, otherwise I will use my own best judgement. If Kalshi closes its highest volume market before November 4th for any reason, its total volume will still count for the purpose of this question.

The "Other" answer for this question will always be the answer that is higher volume than all other buckets. If "Other" steadily trades high, I may divide it into additional defined ranges.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Economics

#Predictions on Predictions

#Kalshi

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$57mm and counting

My No position on "Other" disappeared because of the new option that just got added

@PlainBG you should now have YES shares on all the (previous) other options (except "other" and the new option)

There was $7M total volume over the first 10 days (October 4 - October 14), and then $6M volume in just the last 24 hours. It will be interesting to see if $6M per day is the new normal or if it was just a one-time thing.

@agabara It may depend on how much longer/farther the Trump whales push on Polymarket.

@agabara Volume was about $3M in the past 24 hours. So lower than yesterday, but still elevated relative to before that.

There isn't nearly as much volume as I expected/hoped. But it likely will go up once people get their deposits in

It’s starting to get interesting! The big election markets (eg President winner, Senate, House) finally up and running on Kalshi

If they don’t launch any market will this resolve to less than $5 million? Or N/A?

Right now, "How Many Presidential Debates This Year" is prominently displayed under the election markets tab, despite not being a new market that they launched after the court decision. It will count as an election market for the purposes of this question, so there is no possibility of an N/A.

@JakeLowery Thanks for clarifying

@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 Further clarification -- Kalshi has now made elections.kalshi.com entirely seperate from regular Kalshi, including different deposits. To honor the spirit of the question and also honor the earlier clarification, "Election Markets" will count any market on elections.kalshi.com, plus the "How Many Presidential Debates This Year" question.

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