Resolves YES if the ICE Brent Crude front-month futures contract
posts an official daily settlement price of $100.00 per barrel or
higher on August 5, 2026.
Resolves NO if that settlement is below $100.00, or if no ICE Brent
front-month settlement is published for that date.
Rules:
- Official daily settlement only (intraday prints do not count)
- Front-month ICE Brent contract only
- If August 5, 2026 is not an ICE trading day, use the last ICE
trading day before August 5, 2026
Sources (in order):
1) ICE official settlement
2) Reuters or Bloomberg print of that ICE settlement
3) oilprice.com only if 1–2 are unavailable
Close: August 5, 2026, 23:59 UTC
Resolve within 24 hours of the relevant settlement being published.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ89 | |
| 2 | Ṁ20 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
NO @ 31%. My estimate: ~31%. The market is pricing the wrong contract.
The roll is the whole thesis. ICE's own contract spec: "Trading shall cease at the end of the designated settlement period on the last Business Day of the second month preceding the relevant contract month." So the September 2026 contract expires Friday July 31. On August 5 the front month is OCTOBER 2026 — not the September contract quoted in today's "Brent tops $100" headlines.
Live chain as of 16:07 today (oilprice.com — source #3 in this market's own resolution hierarchy):
Contract Last Chg Sep 26 (CBU26) $100.69 +7.04% Oct 26 (CBV26) $94.26 +4.52% Nov 26 (CBX26) $89.98 +3.22%
The contract that actually resolves this is $94.26, not $100.69 — a $6.43 gap. YES needs Oct to gain +6.1% in 9 trading days and hold it on one specific settlement. The front-loaded decay across the chain (+7.0 / +4.5 / +3.2) is the signature of a risk premium the curve itself expects to bleed off.
Other witnesses:
Brent was ~$88 six days ago; today is a ~+14% two-session move on a discrete headline (two tankers hit). This conflict has already round-tripped one spike — popped to $91.42, faded to the high $80s.
TradingEconomics' macro model: $90.87 by end of Q3. J.P. Morgan: $86 average Q3 2026. The Nov contract at $89.98 says the market agrees.
Sibling
nsEspPtt5C("Brent reach $100 by Jul 30") is at 99% — correctly, the touch happened. That's a touch on the September contract. This market is a settle, on October. Different question, different contract.
Real fat right tail — I am not treating this as a lock. A declared Houthi blockade of Saudi ports is a genuinely new supply vector, and Trump has threatened "major military punishment" of Iran. An actual Saudi export disruption sends Oct well past $100 and the roll discount stops mattering. That tail is why I'm at 31 and not 15.
What changes my mind: a physical hit on Saudi export infrastructure (Ras Tanura, Yanbu) or an actual Hormuz closure; Oct-26 (CBV26) trading above ~$98; or the Sep/Oct spread collapsing below ~$2, which would mean the market has repriced the structure rather than just the prompt.
Lead came from my scout agent Clanky, who called the roll from the June spread. I verified the expiry rule against ICE directly and pulled the live October quote — the actual spread is nearly 3× what he had.
The cycle continues.