When Sam Altman was "fired", X posted the job opportunities, so what's the next stop of Sam?
1,000
3.00I think this should resolve to Microsoft, not OpenAI.
From any common interpretation of the question, his next stop was Microsoft. He stated he was working under them, their CEO stated he was working under them, etc.
The question author didn't ask "Where will Sam Altman spend a significant amount of time", he asked "What's Sam Altman's next stop?. And the answer to that is Microsoft. See Sam Altman saying "When I decided to join Microsoft", in the past tense.
Also, see the CEO of Microsoft saying that Sam Altman is joining them:
@RobertCousineau I'll leave M20k in liquidity for you. M10k at 50% and M10k at 5%.
Someone taking the liquidity from 1->5% isn't offering a serious opinion. They're just buying lottery tickets on something they don't believe.
@jacksonpolack I can't comment on formal employment agreements because I do not have that info. Nevertheless, I really don't think that it was just "a transparent play to force OpenAI to bring him back." (see my below embedded markets - if it was transparent they wouldn't have been at 60+ percent). Even if it was, what he did still ought count as a stop, as the time he was at Microsoft accomplished his goals. When I am driving somewhere, I say I "stopped" at the gas station, even if I just hope to get gas and don't plan on spending the rest of my life there.
This market had him at 70% likely to be there for a month up until the 21NOV announcement:
This one had Andrej Karpathy joining him at 64%
, etc.
I really do think what he did at Microsoft is fairly described as a "stop".
@Mira I really do try and act in good faith on this website. I continue to attempt to do so in this market.
I am not betting this up significantly yet as I can see I am arguing against what was the prevailing market consensus in what will probably be a popularity contest (as I don't expect the market creator to come back). I've gone ahead and bet it up to 20% though?
it is transparent now, given what he's said and what's happened.
). Even if it was, what he did still ought count as a stop, as the time he was at Microsoft accomplished his goals
He was not at microsoft!
When I am driving somewhere, I say I "stopped" at the gas station, even if I just hope to get gas and don't plan on spending the rest of my life there.
Yes, because that's driving, instead of an analogy for employment!
@JackTang This should resolve to OpenAI (https://openai.com/blog/sam-altman-returns-as-ceo-openai-has-a-new-initial-board)
I guess I see the case for him having 'stopped at' Microsoft, but my thinking is that the relevant announcement was that Sam Altman "will be joining Microsoft" and that Satya is "excited to have [him] join" - so I read it as there was an intention/plan for him to join Microsoft, but I haven't seen evidence he actually started working there
So if the next stop is an independently-named Microsoft subsidiary, with a similar status to LinkedIn or GitHub, with Sam as the CEO, does this resolve "Microsoft", or "Other"?
The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Ilya Sutskever, a co-founder of OpenAI, and 500 employees have signed a letter saying they will quit if Sam Altman does not return. Strangely, Ilya Sutskever is the same person that has been accused of convincing the board to fire Altman. OpenAI currently has just…" / X (twitter.com)
I believe this can now be resolved at MICROSOFT.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/tech/sam-altman-joins-microsoft/index.html
@FrederickNorris This is the correct answer. His next job was with Microsoft. The question wasn't where he would end up.
a bit of a technicality, @JackTang what do you think about this, could you clarify if the temporary (perhaps not official, hard to say) microsoft stay counts?
@JonasVollmer I hear you. But "next stop" was Microsoft. Not "next employer". This may be the victim of poor market creation, I guess.
@JonasVollmer it did seem unlikely that he ever officially joined, but didn't know about the "guest" bit, ty! I know he was a "guest" at openai though, meaning he was (likely) officially gone from openai
@KevinBlaw I mean the question was clearly framed in the context of job offers. I don't think he ever spent any time at Microsoft.
@TheBayesian I think we probably agree. It's time for this market to be resolved and to put forth some explanation.
@JonasVollmer Then it resolves Microsoft: https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/tech/sam-altman-joins-microsoft/index.html first line says Microsoft HIRED him.
@JonasVollmer "Microsoft has hired Sam Altman to power up its innovation in artificial intelligence after the co-founder of OpenAI was ousted as CEO in a chaotic boardroom coup on Friday."
@KevinBlaw I don't think that's a reasonable interpretation, but I just bought some Microsoft anyway
With the Monday announcement that Altman would be joining Microsoft, that speculation appeared to have been put to bed — at least for now.
Note the ‘announcement that altman *would be joining* microsoft later in the article. Always discount the first sentences of an article
@jacksonpolack My position is that the framing of the question didn't require him to be hired anywhere, just his next stop. Other people were saying that he needed to be hired, and there is at least some reporting that he was hired. He was also acting in concert with Microsoft to reshape the OpenAI board, so I think that's sufficient to resolve it as it being "his next stop."
@jacksonpolack @JackTang if you still use Manifold, will you please resolve this? No one is quite sure what you mean by "next stop". If he never left OpenAI, can OpenAI be his next stop? Was a brief stint at Microsoft his next stop? Was stopping by the shitter on his way to Microsoft his "next stop"? Just please resolve so we can get our MANA out and back on the street.
@WrongoPhD I'm almost convinced that @JackTang isn't an active user and this will never be resolved.