Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump officially declares his candidacy, formally launches a campaign, or files the necessary registration paperwork to run for Mayor of New York City in the 2029 election cycle.

Formal filings can be verified via official resources such as:

• The New York City Campaign Finance Board (CFB) Candidates List

• The New York City Board of Elections (BOE)

To resolve as YES, Trump must take concrete steps to run, which include either:

1. Publicly and unambiguously declaring a formal candidacy for the 2029 NYC mayoral election.

2. Registering a campaign committee for the office of NYC Mayor with the CFB or filing nominating petitions with the BOE to appear on the 2029 primary or general election ballot.

This market will resolve to NO if Donald Trump does not officially file or launch a formal campaign by the conclusion of the general election on November 6, 2029. Vague statements of interest, hypothetical musings, or casual remarks (e.g., "I would love to be mayor") will not suffice for a YES resolution without subsequent official registration or a formal campaign launch.

Background

Donald Trump has a well-documented history with New York City, where he built much of his real estate empire and public profile. In late 2025, following the election of Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as the 112th Mayor of New York City, Trump reportedly stated in an Oval Office meeting that he "would love to be NYC mayor."

The next New York City mayoral election is scheduled for November 6, 2029. Candidates seeking citywide offices in New York City must register their campaigns and disclose their financial activities with the New York City Campaign Finance Board. This market tracks whether Trump transitions his rhetorical interest into an official mayoral campaign.