Resolution criteria

Global carbon emissions will be measured using total energy-related CO2 emissions data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), available at https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025/co2-emissions. The market resolves YES if global greenhouse gas emissions (measured in Gt CO2eq, including all sources) in any year from 2025-2029 are lower than the previous year's emissions. The market resolves NO if emissions continue to increase or remain flat through 2029. Resolution will use the most recent official data available from the IEA or Global Carbon Project by end of 2030.

Background

Total energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 0.8% in 2024, hitting an all-time high of 37.8 Gt CO2. Despite the urgent need to cut emissions to slow climate change, researchers say there is still "no sign" that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions. However, coal is at or close to a peak, with oil set to follow around 2030 and gas by 2035, based on stated policy intentions. The growth rate of emissions is much lower than it was 10 years ago, and emissions in the U.S. and the European Union have been declining for years.

Considerations

The IPCC has stated that emissions must peak by 2025 to limit global warming to 1.5°C, making this deadline already passed. Under current policies, global CO2 emissions are projected to plateau in the mid-late 2030s, then gently decline to 2050. The question asks about a peak before 2030, which is more lenient than the IPCC's 2025 target but still represents a significant near-term shift from current trends. Clean energy technologies have avoided annual fossil fuel demand equivalent to 6% of total global fossil fuel demand in 2024, but this progress has not been sufficient to halt the rise in global emissions.

This description was generated by AI.