Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on the Bank of England's official Bank Rate on January 1, 2030. The Bank Rate is the official interest rate set by the Bank of England, and the resolution will be determined by the rate announced by the Monetary Policy Committee on or closest to that date. Resolution can be verified at the Bank of England's official Bank Rate database. Rates will be rounded to the nearest .25%.

Background

The current Bank of England base rate is 3.75%, held at that level as of February 5, 2026. After four rate cuts in 2025, market signals are at odds with economist expectations. The Office for Budget Responsibility projected that the Bank of England base rate would gradually decline to around 3.5% by 2029, while the BoE expected a 0.50-percentage-point reduction to 3.5% by Q3 2026, followed by incremental increases to 3.6% in 2027 and 3.7% in 2028.

Considerations

Long-term interest rate forecasts beyond 2028 are inherently uncertain and subject to significant revision based on inflation dynamics, economic growth, labor market conditions, and global factors. Most major analysts have not issued a long-term interest rate forecast for the UK, making this market dependent on how economic conditions evolve over the next four years.

This description was generated by AI.