Resolution criteria

The arbitration panel will pick either the salary the player filed ($32 million) or the salary the team filed ($19 million). The market resolves "Yes ($31 mil)" if Skubal wins and receives $32 million, "No ($19 mil)" if the Tigers win and Skubal receives $19 million, and "He signs before hearing" if both sides reach a settlement agreement before the hearing scheduled from Jan. 26 to Feb. 13 in Scottsdale, Arizona. Resolution will be determined by official MLB announcements or verified reporting from MLB.com, ESPN, or other major sports outlets.

Background

Skubal became the first pitcher to win consecutive AL Cy Young Awards since Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000. In 195 1/3 innings over 31 starts, he recorded a 2.21 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP and a 187 ERA+ — the latter three of which led the AL. He is entering his sixth season with the Tigers and is in his third and final time through arbitration before reaching free agency, where he is angling to become the first $400 million pitcher in baseball history.

Considerations

The $13 million gap represents the largest difference in arbitration history. With over five years of MLB service time, Skubal can compare himself to any pitcher in baseball, not just past arbitration-eligible players, giving him a strong argument to justify a $32 million one-year salary. The Tigers are historically a "file-and-trial" team, making a settlement less likely than with other organizations. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holds the record for the highest salary decided by a panel at $19.9 million in 2024, well below Skubal's request.