Background OpenAI has developed models o1 and o3 with specific "thinking before responding" capabilities, which involve chain-of-thought processing and deliberative alignment with safety policies. OpenAI plans to release o3 to the general public in January 2025. Anthropic has been actively developing and releasing new iterations of their Claude models, with recent improvements in reasoning, coding, and mathematical capabilities.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

• Anthropic releases a model that explicitly features similar "thinking before responding" capabilities as demonstrated in OpenAI's o1/o3 models

• The model must be publicly announced and documented to have this specific feature

• The model must be available for public testing or use

The market will resolve NO if:

• OpenAI releases o3 to general users before Anthropic releases a model with comparable reasoning capabilities

Considerations

• While Anthropic's current models (including Claude 3.5 Sonnet) show advanced capabilities, they don't explicitly feature the same "thinking before responding" mechanism as o1/o3

• The exact specifications of o1's reasoning capabilities are not fully public, which may make direct comparisons challenging

• Anthropic may release incremental improvements to their models that approach but don't exactly match o1's capabilities

Note:

A release means that a regular user has access to the model. Either in a free or paid way as part of the subscription or API. It does not count as a release if the model is announced but the company is only letting select users test the model on invite only (like o3 when it was announced).