Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if GoodWager.bet reports having more than 350 monthly active users (MAU) by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on official platform metrics published by GoodWager or verified third-party sources tracking platform usage. If no verifiable data is available by EOY 2026, this market resolves N/A.

Background

GoodWager is a prediction market platform that integrates charitable giving into its model. 2026 marks the platform's inaugural year of operation. The prediction market space has experienced significant growth, with major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket processing billions in trading volume, though most established platforms target experienced traders and have substantially larger user bases.

Considerations

As an early-stage platform launching in 2026, GoodWager faces competition from well-funded incumbents (DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, Polymarket, Kalshi) that launched or expanded in late 2025. The charitable giving integration represents a differentiated model, but user acquisition in a crowded market will be a key challenge. 350 MAU is a modest target for a full-year platform, though retention and growth rates for new prediction market entrants remain uncertain.