One of the most infamous serial killers of the 20th century was the "Zodiac Killer", who killed at least 5 people in the San Francisco Bay Area between the years 1968 and 1969. The case is unsolved to this day, but the police's prime suspect was Arthur Leigh Allen.

This market resolves YES if, within a week, you (the commenters) convince me that Allen was the killer, NO if you convince me that he wasn't, and 50% if I'm not confident in either direction. You can think of this as resolving to YES if my prob is 75-100%, 50% if my prob is 26-74% and NO if it's 0-25%. But don't take these too literally, because I don't intend on coming up with precise probability estimates.

Some things to note:

• I currently have a limited knowledge of the case (I read the Wikipedia article a long time ago).

• I don't have a strong opinion on who the killer was.

• I intend to give daily updates on what position I'm leaning towards.

• If I become very confident in a particular position I may resolve the market early, but with a 24-hour notice so that people have the chance to make counterarguments.

• I am not betting on this market.

There is also a Ṁ500 prize for the commenter who convinces me the most! I may withhold the prize if I feel that nobody did much to convince me (or for any other reason I feel is appropriate).