Will Israel take a strategic pause between the Gazan front and the Lebanese front? and how long will be the pause?
Mini
10
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Dec 31
33%
There will not a strategic pause at all
15%
Yes, it will last less then 3 months
2%
Yes, it will last more then 3 months
50%
The Israeli-Lebanese front will not escalate

The strategic pause will enable Israel to reorganize, move military troops and plan a new front with Lebanon.

The start of the pause will be defined here a proper announcement of a either ceasefire at the with Hamas or any other Palestinian authority regarding Gaza or an announcement of the end of the war with Gaza and it must last at least a 2 weeks.

The end of the pause will be an announcement of Israeli troops within Lebanon or Lebanese troops within Israel and it must be for at least a week for it not to be considered a raid.
The Israeli-Lebanese border will be defined as the blue line as in Wikipedia, and crossing it will be defined as at least 5km from the border (for each side accordingly).

No pause means that the "end of the pause" (as defined here) happed before the "The start of the pause" (as defined here). For example, there is a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza and after a week 3 Israeli battalions cross the border with Lebanon and fights for a month.

No escalation means that by the end of 2024 will have passed more then 6 months from "The start of the pause" (as defined here) and "The start of the pause" (as defined here). For example, the last day of February there is a ceasefire, the last day of March the ceasefire still stands and up to the last day of December there are only missiles and artillery between Israel and Lebanon but no ground invasion.

Every announcement will be verified after covered in at least 2 major media sources (one Israeli such as Haaretz, Ynet, N12, Israel Hayom and one non-Israeli such as BBC, CNN, Aljazeera)

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