26% chance. Background Meta (formerly Facebook) acquired Instagram in 2012 for $1 billion. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has filed an antitrust lawsuit seeking to force Meta to divest from Instagram (and WhatsApp), alleging these acquisitions helped Meta eliminate potential rivals. The case is currently set to go to trial on April 14, 2025. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if: Meta voluntarily sells or spins off Instagram into a separate company before January 1, 2028 Meta is forced by regulatory action to divest from Instagram before January 1, 2028 Instagram is sold or transferred to another company before January 1, 2028 The market will resolve NO if: Instagram remains owned by Meta as of January 1, 2028 Meta ceases to exist but Instagram was not specifically divested (e.g., in the case of a full company acquisition) Considerations The FTC's antitrust case is expected to be lengthy and complex, extending far into the next presidential term Even if the FTC wins its case, the appeals process could extend beyond 2028 The technical complexity of separating Instagram's infrastructure from Meta's could impact the timeline of any potential divestiture A change in presidential administration could affect the FTC's approach to the case