Will someone snipe this market right before close?
27
397
550
resolved Apr 8
Resolved
NO

If the market probability at 5 minutes prior to close is different by at least 30 percentage points from its probability at close, this resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

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Alright, let's try some more robust criteria this time.

Hmm. I see there may have been a flaw in my resolution criteria. Snipes probably shouldn't have been allowed to cancel out like this.

Does seem like this should resolve to NO now. Any counterarguments?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@IsaacKing The counter snipe was a limit order which seems counter to the spirit of the market, timing wise and collective action. I think it should resolve to YES.

@JohnSmith9249 How does it being a limit order matter?

sold Ṁ0 of YES

@IsaacKing it’s the spirit of collective action! 😂

predicted NO

@IsaacKing not a counter argument (pls resolve NO), but some ideas for future versions of this market

  1. Percentage could be at random time between 10-5 minutes before close instead of exactly 5

  2. snipe could be defined as a single bet which changes the market by some amount or higher (like if someone bets it from 15% to 50% then they change the market by 35 percentage points

predicted NO

@IsaacKing I think this should resolve no because it will make me happy

predicted YES

@IsaacKing I think N/A would be most fair?

predicted NO

@Fuchsia nah yall r just salty u lost

bought Ṁ212 of NO

ty for the money

predicted YES

Hmm I'm not sure if this is profitable to snipe anymore

sold Ṁ54 of YES

@RICHARDZHU going to take my money and run

@IsaacKing Is the difference calculation from rounded percentages, or more exact values given by the API?

predicted NO

I think this is asking for two smaller snipes in opposite directions?

@deagol That works, but only if no one else is also around to countersnipe.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing only need to tank it for a few seconds at the t-5 min mark, set the reference and let go, making the close snipe much easier. I guess both YES and NO need to watch both sides for snipe attempts.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

as long as it stays less than 60 I will snipe it xD