MANIFOLD
Will someone snipe this market right before close?
27
Ṁ550Ṁ3.8k
resolved Apr 8
Resolved
NO

If the market probability at 5 minutes prior to close is different by at least 30 percentage points from its probability at close, this resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

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Alright, let's try some more robust criteria this time.

Hmm. I see there may have been a flaw in my resolution criteria. Snipes probably shouldn't have been allowed to cancel out like this.

Does seem like this should resolve to NO now. Any counterarguments?

@IsaacKing The counter snipe was a limit order which seems counter to the spirit of the market, timing wise and collective action. I think it should resolve to YES.

@JohnSmith9249 How does it being a limit order matter?

@IsaacKing it’s the spirit of collective action! 😂

predictedNO

@IsaacKing not a counter argument (pls resolve NO), but some ideas for future versions of this market

  1. Percentage could be at random time between 10-5 minutes before close instead of exactly 5

  2. snipe could be defined as a single bet which changes the market by some amount or higher (like if someone bets it from 15% to 50% then they change the market by 35 percentage points

predictedNO

@IsaacKing I think this should resolve no because it will make me happy

predictedYES

@IsaacKing I think N/A would be most fair?

predictedNO

@Fuchsia nah yall r just salty u lost

ty for the money

predictedYES

Hmm I'm not sure if this is profitable to snipe anymore

@RICHARDZHU going to take my money and run

@IsaacKing Is the difference calculation from rounded percentages, or more exact values given by the API?

predictedNO

I think this is asking for two smaller snipes in opposite directions?

@deagol That works, but only if no one else is also around to countersnipe.

predictedNO

@IsaacKing only need to tank it for a few seconds at the t-5 min mark, set the reference and let go, making the close snipe much easier. I guess both YES and NO need to watch both sides for snipe attempts.

as long as it stays less than 60 I will snipe it xD

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