I bought a very used car from a sketchy car guy for around $1000. (He was very clear that we were buying it "as is" and he was not to be held responsible for any problems.)
Over the year or so we've had it, there have been a lot of issues we needed to fix. The ignition didn't work right, so a new one needed to be installed. Most of the buttons for things like the windows didn't work, so we got new ones. The windshield was broken, so we replaced it. The heater/air conditioner control stopped working a few months in, but I was able to fix that myself after dissassembling the dash. The battery died over the winter and wouldn't hold a charge, so we got a new battery, and that one died too. The third battery seems to be doing ok, hasn't had any problems in the past several months. The physical keys don't work as it seems the locks were changed or something, but the electric fob works fine so we haven't bothered to address that. The exhaust tube thing fell off the car and started dragging on the road, so the car place had to secure it back up.
Now the catalytic converter needs to be replaced, which will cost about $800, and we need to decide whether to pay for this or just give up and get a new car.
There are two interpretations of the current situation:
Clearly this car has a lot of problems, and if we fix this one, more problems are likely to continue appearing.
There are only a finite number of things that can go wrong with a car, so the more of them we've addressed recently, the less likely it is that another will crop up.
This market resolves YES if another problem that costs at least $50 CAD or the equivalent amount of effort appears within the next 6 months of use. (Ignoring exogenous issues like a car crash.)
It resolves NO if that doesn't happen, and it resolves N/A if we decide to get rid of the car and don't have it for another 6 months.
I would like an accurate answer to this question, so I've subsidized it with M$5000. If you have additional questions about the car or the circumstances of its purchase, please ask.
A "needed" repair is anything that seems serious enough that we decide to pay for it. (Or to get rid of the car to avoid paying for.) I won't bet in this market.
Further updates will be posted in the comments.
Related questions
@IsaacKing Thanks. Are you using it again now winter is over, and how far off 6 months of use are we currently?
@IsaacKing Thanks for sharing, this is actually good information because that's not that much mileage for the car, so it could be in better condition than its age suggested. I drove a '99 Firebird for years and it barely needed maintenance because it had a [legendarily solid] 3600cc GM engine. FWIW, if you have family or drive in snow, definitely get something safer and newer.
@IsaacKing LOL, basically yes! I was more thinking along the lines of being stuck in a snow drift with a screaming toddler
FYI, I think in general you should resolve PROB instead of N/A for markets like this if you end up getting rid of the car. Reasoning: if you care about the market percentage in your choice, then if it’s at like 90%, you’re more likely to resolve N/A. This means that betting YES is less profitable than one may expect, thereby deflating the market percentage.
@IsaacKing could you commit to not betting on this market so that your judgement of what repairs are "needed" or not is more impartial?
@IsaacKing Could you commit not to do that either? There is an incentive to choose resolution based on which direction would profit you more. Imagine the market is at 3%, you're incentivised to resolve YES.
Unless you announce a few hours in advance which way you're going to resolve and then only take what liquidity others don't, that would be fine.
@IsaacKing I don't need to understand exactly how subsidies are refunded to know that also being able to trade would only give you more options and be worse
@IsaacKing How do you get liquidity subsidy back on yes? I think it is never refunded, it is distributed to the traders or is destroyed in the end, no?
@Irigi If the market is going to resolve No, people will probably trade it down very close to 0% immediately before it closes. But if it resolves Yes it will likely happen suddenly, before anyone knows something has happened.
Out of the 5470 subsidy in this market currently, Isaac has put in around 5050, or 92%. There are 4168 Yes shares in the pool right now so if the market resolves Yes today, Isaac will get 92% of that (3848) back as a refund of the liquidity provided, because it was still in the market. The other 8% would be refunded to Manifold because they put that in at a rate of 20 mana per trader.