
Manifold's policy right now is to allow creators to N/A a market for any reason, even if it's blatantly incorrect or fraudulent.
To be more precise, there is no policy except some vague suggestions in the community guidelines. Every time one of these situations occur, the mods have the exact same argument over what should happen, and arrive at the exact same conclusion of "no clear decision has been made, just do whatever". Usually "whatever" ends up being "allow the creator to resolve N/A if they want to", though it's inconsistent.
Here are all of the relevant excerpts from the community guidelines:
Markets designed to defraud users [will be] retroactively N/A’d, or N/A’d if the creator is banned for defrauding users on other markets.
Market creators have the right to N/A their own personal goal markets.
Manifold or moderators may resolve a market on your behalf if unambiguous resolution criteria are fulfilled. This could include un-resolving a blatantly incorrect resolution made by the creator.
Manifold reserves the right to re-resolve any market if we believe they were resolved fraudulently, including markets created prior to this policy coming into effect.
So the official policy is "we're allowed to fix improper resolutions, but we make no guarantees to do so, and also creators are allowed to misresolve personal goal markets and markets that Manifold deems 'fraudulent'".
This is obviously terrible, as it steals arbitrarily high amounts of opportunity cost and counterfactual mana from traders, allowing creators to cap their losses in their own markets at M$0. It's like saying that the game "let's bet $5 on this coin flip, except if it lands in a way I don't like I get to nullify the bet retroactively" is a fair game. As far as I'm aware no justification has ever been provided for this policy, but Manifold and the mods keep doing it anyway. (Wasting their own time in the process with all the identical arguments over this.)
This market resolves based on whether Manifold implements and consistently enforces a new policy that clearly disallows improper N/A resolutions.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
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1 | Ṁ144 | |
2 | Ṁ26 | |
3 | Ṁ4 | |
4 | Ṁ2 |