Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
Basic
54
15k
2025
50%
chance

If this market gets fewer than 30 traders, it resolves N/A. Otherwise, it resolves as per the title.

This is an experiment to see whether a "this market is cancelled if I don't get enough traders" clause will be self-defeating and make people less likely to bet. Experiment results: Seems like no, though maybe pickup would have been faster if it hadn't had that clause.

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Can you edit the description to remove the N/A clause

There are now a sufficient number of traders for this market not to be N/A-ed

I think this is reasonably likely to hit 30 traders. But I think it will get a lot less interest than other equivalent markets without the potential N/A clause, such as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p. (We can't directly compare because that one started earlier and already got a bunch of traders.)

Also, note that it is not possible to perform a pure arbitrage between such markets, because of the N/A possibility.

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