Will anyone in the Manifold MTG tournament deck out? | Manifold Markets

Will anyone in the Manifold MTG tournament deck out?

2024

14

81%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Magic: The Gathering

February MTG tournament

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CubityFirstbought Ṁ50 of NO

No shot, although this market existing might incentivise people to do this adversarially.

Wobblesis predicting NO at 22%

@CubityFirst is it possible to tie in magic? lol

Zygohistomorphic

@DesTiny It is possible, though pretty hard, to draw a game of magic. I had a look at the starter decklists and can even confirm that it's possible with cards that could appear in this tournament. The monoblack deck, e.g., has a copy of [[Bad Deal]] which causes each player to lose 2 life as part of its effect, which could result in all players going to zero or less life simultaneously.

However, for the tournament, you'll be playing matches, so you'll just keep playing games until someone has won two. (I'm actually not 100% certain Arena implements that rule correctly, which I guess is another pointer to how rare this situation is.)

Wobblesis predicting NO at 11%

@zygohistomorphic seems like I have a deck to use

Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 11%

You can also agree to an intentional draw if you want to.

Wobblesbought Ṁ150 of NO

how common is this?

Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 11%

@DesTiny Depends on the format. If it's a format with a mill deck, pretty common. With just the intro decks, seems unlikely.

@IsaacKing Grave Matters (BG) is a self-mill deck, I think it can easily deck out if the game enters in a stalemate and the player isn't cautious

Odoacre sold Ṁ173 YES from 91% to 81%

Gustavo Mafra bought Ṁ10 NO from 94% to 91%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ11 NO at 94% (cancelled)

CubityFirst sold Ṁ39 NO from 83% to 96%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ4 NO at 83% (cancelled)

Wobbles bought Ṁ45 YES from 81% to 84%

Wobbles bought Ṁ100 YES from 69% to 81%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ15 NO from 74% to 69%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ20 NO from 81% to 74%

Zygohistomorphic bought Ṁ10 NO from 85% to 81%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ11 NO at 85% (cancelled)

Wobbles bought Ṁ80 YES from 83% to 88%

Wobbles bought Ṁ100 YES from 74% to 83%

Wobbles bought Ṁ100 YES from 58% to 74%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 32%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 82%

Odoacre bought Ṁ20 YES from 53% to 58%

Gustavo Mafra bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 53%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ20 NO from 56% to 50%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ20 NO from 64% to 56%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ20 NO from 73% to 64%

Tyler Coleman sold Ṁ66 YES from 82% to 73%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ8 NO at 82% (cancelled)

Wobbles bought Ṁ100 YES from 73% to 86%

Wobbles bought Ṁ100 YES from 50% to 73%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ20 NO from 57% to 50%

Zygohistomorphic bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 57%

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ45 YES from 45% to 60%

Zygohistomorphic bought Ṁ10 NO from 48% to 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 48% (cancelled)

Odoacre filled limit order Ṁ40/Ṁ40 YES at 50%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 YES at 35% (cancelled)

Plurmorant bought Ṁ100 NO from 61% to 30%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ100 NO at 61% (cancelled)

Isaac King sold Ṁ24 NO from 50% to 62%

Odoacre filled limit order Ṁ45/Ṁ45 YES at 50%

Odoacre created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 20%

Odoacre created limit order for Ṁ25 YES at 25% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 32% (cancelled)

Odoacre bought Ṁ20 YES from 25% to 34%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 25% (cancelled)

CubityFirst bought Ṁ50 NO from 30% to 22%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ10 NO from 32% to 30%

Zygohistomorphic bought Ṁ10 NO from 34% to 32%

Wobbles created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 NO at 34% (cancelled)

Wobbles bought Ṁ50 YES from 16% to 39%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ54/Ṁ100 NO at 16% (cancelled)

Wobbles sold Ṁ148 NO from 11% to 21%

Cytokine bought Ṁ10 NO at 11%

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