I'm uncertain that DMs will stay private forever
- @Austin
Resolves NO if this hasn't happened by the end of 2024.
This counts Manifold intentionally choosing to release the data, and also count them doing so unintentionally due to someone exploiting a security vulnerability. (If someone reports such a vulnerability, this resolves YES, even if they don't actually publish the data.) It counts even if it was only a single user or a single message affected.
It does not count something that's the fault of an individual user, such as them leaving themselves logged in to Manifold on a shared computer and someone else taking a screenshot.
See Austin's comment explaining what he means in more detail
I think it's quite unlikely (<2%) that we would deliberately and retroactively publish everyone's DMs. I'm primarily musing about us changing this mechanism sometime in the future (with ample warning). Again, probably the best reference class is what happened with bets.
More caveats:
I could imagine deciding to publish a DM if eg I noticed someone making concrete plans to bomb Manifest 2024
Historically, our record at keeping things private hasn't been great (see private groups), so caveat emptor
If you care about private messaging, I'd suggest eg exchanging contacts on Signal or sth instead of relying on Manifold DMs. DMs are currently a pretty minor feature, so you may be better served by a product whose differentiating feature is its privacy
https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/is-it-bad-that-manifold-publicizes#t6z1WYCknGRRU6LvAbCJ
@jack This is exactly the same as mine but about only a single message rather than any message, right?
@IsaacKing That's the main difference, there are some other probably minor differences in specification.
In particular, here are some example events in which your market resolves YES while mine doesn't:
Evan's scenario "A selection of relevant DMs were released by the admins as part of the conclusion of a fraud investigation"
Bug reveals some DMs but not all
Admin accidentally shares DM between two other people
@EvanDaniel Which I suppose poses an obvious question: does this market include "A selection of relevant DMs were released by the admins as part of the conclusion of a fraud investigation"?
edit: answered below
Here's a loophole: suppose Alice and Bob have a Manifold DM. Charlie sneaks onto Alice's computer and screenshots the DM and posts it publicly. That would resolve the question yes as worded now, which is not what you want.
Therefore I still suggest the criteria should be the DM being revealed by Manifold.
Also still should clarify whether unintentional vs intentional sharing counts