This morning, a Discord account named "JD Vance" joined Passarine, a discord server with ~40 people in it, mostly for rationalist and TPOT adjacent trans girls and those friendly to them. This account proceeded to spend about 2 hours answering political questions in an extremely JD-Vance-like manner, then said it was time for him to get back to work and left.
The prior on the real JD Vance randomly joining a trans discord server to answer questions seems pretty low, but it also seems difficult for a human impersonator to have done this good a job; especially an impersonator who knows about this server, and thus is probably not spending a lot of time in conservative circles.
Resolves if/when I get any solid evidence either way, not just speculation. I don't have to be completely certain.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ71 | |
| 2 | Ṁ47 | |
| 3 | Ṁ34 | |
| 4 | Ṁ16 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
Just posting here for the record, Thiago and Zane have agreed to a USD bet on the outcome of this market. Thiago wagers $100 on YES, against Zane's $2500 on NO. (Not inflation-adjusted.)
@IsaacKing i think, conditional on the real JD Vance visiting Passerine, it is not too surprising to me if he also would say he's in tpot
@IsaacKing fyi server admins can see who invited someone to a server - would be interesting to learn that
@Sinclair did say "I am JD Vance" shortly after the account joined, seemingly as a joke. She now claims to not have shared the invite "in any public or semi-private capacity".
The "JD Vance is typing" indicator did show up at the bottom of the screen for significant time, seemingly proportional to the length of the message. So either the person was typing answers themselves (not copy-pasting from an AI), or they were intentionally waiting before pressing send in order to fake the typing type.
@IsaacKing I'm not the most avid JD Vance follower but "JD Vance" straight up saying "adults should have access to..." instead of the more savvy "Let's put adults aside for now, ..." lowers the odds for me... not that I'd think regardless that its >1%
@copiumarc Maybe he was willing to be a little more candid given that this isn't going to be shared widely since there's no proof it's him
@IsaacKing If that were the case, I think he would just say it's all degenerate, given Vance is a tradcath. Campaign trail Vance also seemed more moderate to me than pre-campaign 2024 Vance